ACA Open Enrollment 2027: How Much Are Marketplace Premiums Really Rising?

The short answer: double-digit again, but not doubling for everyone

Full-price Marketplace premiums are on track for a second straight double-digit rise in 2027, with a 15% median request. For subsidised buyers under 400% of the poverty line, the bigger shock already happened in 2026, when enhanced credits expired and average net payments rose 58%. The people most exposed in 2027 earn just above the 400% cliff.

Two different numbers get mixed up in headlines. The first is the sticker price insurers charge. Peterson-KFF found a median proposed increase of 15% for 2027 across 276 insurers in all 50 states and DC, after the average benchmark silver premium jumped 26% for 2026. If those requests hold, typical premiums will have risen by more than a third in two years.

The second is what you actually pay after the premium tax credit. For most enrollees that is set by income, not by the sticker price. In 2026 the average net monthly payment rose from $113 to $178, or 58%, according to KFF's analysis of federal data. That jump came mainly from the loss of the enhanced credits, not from insurer pricing.

Our worked examples below show the pattern for 2027. A single 40-year-old earning $35,000 pays about $2,627 a year for the benchmark plan under current law, versus about $970 if the enhanced credits still applied. At $80,000, above the cliff, they pay the full price: $7,500 at the 2026 average benchmark, or about $8,625 if their benchmark rises 15%.

How much are ACA premiums going up in 2027?

Insurers proposed a median 15% increase for 2027, ranging from a 1% cut to a 54% rise. Most requests (63%) fell between 10% and 25%. Regulators trimmed some sharply: New York approved 6% against a 20.6% request. Others approved large increases, including Georgia (20.7%) and Washington (22.2%).

Peterson-KFF's review of preliminary filings, updated on 3 August 2026, found a 25th percentile of 11% and a 75th percentile of 22%. Fifty-one insurers asked for more than 25%. This is the second-highest median request since 2018. Only the 2026 cycle was higher, with an 18% median request and a 20% median final increase.

Why so high? Insurers cite medical cost trend (a median of 10%, up from about 8% in recent years), provider labour costs, higher-acuity billing and, for some, GLP-1 drug use. Many also expect a smaller, sicker risk pool because healthier people dropped coverage once the enhanced credits ended. Peterson-KFF says that effect added about 4 percentage points to 2026 rates, and insurers project roughly another 4 points for 2027.

What is the average benchmark silver premium, and how has it changed?

The average benchmark silver premium for a 40-year-old was $625 a month in 2026, up from $497 in 2025, the biggest one-year rise since 2018. It had been almost flat for six years, between $438 and $481. A 15% increase would take it to about $719 in 2027, a KalQLater illustration rather than an official figure.

The benchmark is the second-lowest-cost silver plan in your area. It matters because your premium tax credit is calculated from it. When it rises, the credit rises too, which shields subsidised buyers but not people above the income cliff.

Measured from 2014, the benchmark is up 129% ($273 to $625). From 2018 to 2025 it barely moved, which is why the 2026 jump stood out. Peterson-KFF notes that the 26% benchmark rise and the 20% median insurer increase measure different things, so they should not be compared directly.

Did the enhanced premium tax credits expire, and is the 400% cliff back?

Yes. The enhanced credits from the American Rescue Plan and Inflation Reduction Act expired on 31 December 2025, and the original ACA rules apply to 2027. Credits stop above 400% of the poverty line, which is $63,840 for one person and $132,000 for a family of four using the 2026 guidelines. Below that, you pay 2.15% to 10.22% of income for the benchmark plan.

Under the enhanced rules, nobody paid more than 8.5% of income for the benchmark plan, and people up to 150% of poverty paid nothing. The House passed a three-year extension, 230 to 196, on 8 January 2026. The Senate has not taken it up, and a bipartisan Senate compromise has not passed either chamber as of late September 2026.

Within each band the percentage rises in a straight line from the lower to the upper figure. Two other changes raise the stakes. From tax year 2026, the IRS says you must repay all excess advance credit if your income ends up higher than you estimated; the old repayment caps are gone. And from 1 January 2027, credits are limited to lawful permanent residents, certain Cuban and Haitian entrants and COFA migrants, so refugees, asylees and TPS holders lose eligibility.

What will ACA coverage cost in 2027 at $35k, $60k, $80k and $120k?

At the 2026 average benchmark, a single 40-year-old pays about $2,627 a year at $35,000, $6,132 at $60,000 and the full $7,500 at $80,000 for the benchmark plan in 2027. A family of four on $120,000 pays about $12,264. With the expired enhanced credits, each would pay $700 to $3,155 less.

We applied the IRS 2027 table and the 2026 poverty guidelines to four households, using KFF's 2026 average benchmark of $625 a month ($7,500 a year) for a 40-year-old. For the family we assumed two 40-year-old parents and two children under 15, scaled with the federal default age curve. The "enhanced" column applies the expired 2021–2025 percentages to the same income and premium, to show what was lost.

Notice that for the first two singles and the family, a 15% higher benchmark changes nothing about the net cost of the benchmark plan. The credit simply grows to fill the gap. It can still change the net cost of other plans, because each plan's price moves differently from the benchmark.

Did Marketplace enrollment fall after the subsidies expired?

Yes, but less at sign-up than at payment. Plan selections fell from a record 24.3 million in 2025 to 23.1 million in 2026, about 5%. Paid (effectuated) enrollment fell about 3 million, from 22.1 million to 19.2 million in February 2026, as some people signed up but never paid.

The drop was uneven. KFF found sign-ups fell in 41 states, led by North Carolina (22%) and Ohio (20%). Sign-ups among people earning 400% to 500% of poverty, who lost all help, fell 44%. Young adults aged 18 to 34 fell 8%.

People who stayed often traded down. Bronze rose from 30% to 40% of plan selections and silver fell from 57% to 43%, pushing the average deductible from $2,759 to $3,786. KFF estimates that without the shift to bronze the increase would have been about 6%.

When is ACA open enrollment for 2027?

On HealthCare.gov, open enrollment runs from 1 November 2026 to 15 January 2027. Enroll by 15 December for coverage from 1 January; enroll 16 December to 15 January for coverage from 1 February. A court threw out the rule that would have ended enrollment on 15 December, and CMS confirmed the longer window on 31 July 2026.

The 2025 Marketplace Integrity and Affordability rule would have shortened open enrollment for 2027 coverage and required all plans to start on 1 January. A federal court in Maryland struck the rule's provisions in June 2026 in City of Columbus v. Kennedy, and CMS's 31 July statement set the federal window at 1 November to 15 January. The government has appealed, but CMS has said the 15 January date applies regardless.

Should you let your ACA plan auto re-enroll for 2027?

Auto re-enrollment still works for 2027 if your plan continues, but doing nothing is risky. Your plan's price, your benchmark and your credit all reset for 2027. A plan that cost little in 2026 may cost much more, and with repayment caps gone, an out-of-date income estimate can mean a large tax bill.

• Your benchmark can change If the second-lowest silver plan in your area changes, your credit changes, even if your own plan's price barely moves.
• Bronze is no longer swapped for silver People eligible for cost-sharing reductions who sit in bronze are no longer moved automatically to a cheaper-to-use silver plan, so check whether a silver plan gives you a much lower deductible.
• Old income means wrong credit Your 2027 advance credit is based on the income you report. From tax year 2026 you repay all excess credit, so update your estimate when you renew and when income changes.
• Immigration status changes From 1 January 2027, refugees, asylees, TPS holders and most visa holders can buy plans but no longer qualify for credits. Auto-renewal will not make up the difference.
• Still file your taxes CMS says exchanges cannot remove credits for failing to reconcile in 2027 under a court stay, but you are still required to file and reconcile.
• Auto re-enrollment ends for 2028 Industry guidance says automatic re-enrollment is scheduled to end for 2028 coverage, so get used to choosing actively now.

How to shop for a 2027 Marketplace plan and keep costs down

Log in, update your 2027 income, and compare at least the cheapest bronze, the benchmark silver and one gold plan before 15 December. For income near 400% of poverty, check whether retirement or HSA contributions can bring you under the cliff. For income under 250%, compare silver plans with cost-sharing reductions before choosing bronze.

1. 1
   Estimate 2027 income carefully

   Credits use modified adjusted gross income for the whole household. Include freelance income, unemployment and Social Security. Underestimating now can mean repaying the full excess at tax time.

2. 2
   Find your benchmark

   Use HealthCare.gov or your state exchange to see the second-lowest silver plan for your ZIP code and ages, then use the calculator above to check the credit.

3. 3
   Compare total cost, not just premium

   Add the annual premium to the deductible you could realistically hit. The 2027 out-of-pocket maximum is $12,000 for one person.

4. 4
   Check cost-sharing reductions

   Below 250% of poverty, silver plans come with lower deductibles. KFF found the average silver deductible was $80 for enrollees up to 150% of poverty versus $5,304 for a standard silver plan.

5. 5
   Manage the cliff if you are close

   Pre-tax 401(k), traditional IRA and HSA contributions can lower your credit-eligible income. Bronze plans remain HSA-eligible in 2027 (limit $4,500 single, $9,000 family).

6. 6
   Check state help

   Some states add their own subsidies. Virginia's new Premium Savings program covers 138% to 250% of poverty; Rhode Island set aside $19 million for 2027.

7. 7
   Pick by 15 December

   That secures 1 January coverage on HealthCare.gov. Pay your first premium on time or the plan will not start.

Who will feel 2027 premium increases most?

Households just above 400% of poverty, older enrollees and people in high-cost states feel 2027 increases most, because they pay the full sticker price. Premiums rise with age, so the same percentage increase costs older buyers more dollars.

Under 400% of poverty, your benchmark cost is capped at a share of income, so insurer rate hikes mostly flow to the government through bigger credits. Above the cliff there is no cap. Our $80,000 single example pays $1,125 more in 2027 if their benchmark rises 15% ($7,500 to $8,625).

People under 400% still pay more than in 2025, because the percentages are higher than under the enhanced rules: 10.22% at the top band versus a maximum of 8.5% before. Many also face higher deductibles if they moved to bronze. Below 100% of poverty, people are generally steered to Medicaid and are not eligible for credits.

Claims vs evidence

Frequently asked questions

How we built this analysis

• Rate changes: 2027 median proposed increase and distribution from Peterson-KFF's review of 276 insurers' filings (updated 3 August 2026); approved state averages from healthinsurance.org's state-by-state tracker (updated 19 October 2026).
• Premium tax credit = annual benchmark premium − (household income × applicable percentage), floored at zero. Applicable percentages from IRS Rev. Proc. 2026-26 for 2027, linearly interpolated within each band; the 'enhanced' comparison uses the 2021–2025 table in IRS Rev. Proc. 2023-29.
• Poverty guidelines: 2026 HHS guidelines for the 48 contiguous states and DC ($15,960 for one person, $33,000 for four), which apply to 2027 Marketplace coverage. Example: $60,000 ÷ $15,960 = 375.9% of poverty, so the percentage is 10.22% and the contribution is $6,132; credit = $7,500 − $6,132 = $1,368.
• Benchmark: KFF 2026 national average for a 40-year-old ($625 × 12 = $7,500 a year). Family benchmark = $7,500 × (2 + 2 × 0.765 ÷ 1.278) = $23,979, using the federal default age curve factors for age 0–14 (0.765) and age 40 (1.278). The 'benchmark +15%' scenario ($8,625) is a KalQLater illustration based on the 15% median rate request.
• Extra cost = current-law net benchmark cost − net cost under enhanced percentages, same income and premium. Example: $35,000 single: $2,627 − $970 = $1,657.
• Enrollment: plan selections 2014–2026 from KFF (CMS and ASPE data); effectuated enrollment and net premium changes from KFF analyses of ASPE's June 2026 report.

Limitations

Our examples use national averages; actual benchmark premiums vary by ZIP code, age, tobacco use and household makeup, and some states use their own age curves. Final 2027 rates were not set in every state, and no national 2027 benchmark average was available as of 23 October 2026. The calculation ignores cost-sharing reductions, state subsidies, and Medicaid eligibility rules, and assumes everyone in the household is eligible for the credit. Laws could change if Congress acts. This article is general information, not financial, tax or legal advice; check figures with HealthCare.gov, your state exchange or a tax professional.

Spotted an error? See our corrections policy. Read how we work in our methodology and editorial standards.

Sources

1. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services
   Statement Regarding the City of Columbus v. Kennedy Court Order (31 July 2026)Open enrollment 1 Nov 2026 to 15 Jan 2027; provisions stayed
2. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services
   Updated Statement Regarding the Failure to File and Reconcile Requirement (27 July 2026)FTR policy not applied in 2026 and 2027; court dates
3. HealthCare.gov
   Dates and deadlines for 2027 health insurance15 Dec for 1 Jan start; 16 Dec–15 Jan for 1 Feb start
4. Internal Revenue Service
   Internal Revenue Bulletin 2026-31 (Rev. Proc. 2026-26)2027 applicable percentage table; 10.22% required contribution percentage
5. Internal Revenue Service
   Rev. Proc. 2023-29Enhanced applicable percentage table extended through 2025
6. Internal Revenue Service
   Repayment caps eliminated for excess advance payments of the Premium Tax CreditFull repayment from tax year 2026
7. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
   2026 Poverty Guidelines (91 FR 1797, 15 Jan 2026), as reproduced by Florida EDR48 states and DC guideline amounts
8. CMS / HHS
   Guidance Regarding Age Curves and State ReportingFederal default age factors (0–14: 0.765; 40: 1.278)
9. Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker
   How much and why ACA Marketplace premiums are going up in 202715% median proposed increase; cost drivers; Indianapolis example
10. KFF
    Marketplace Average Monthly Benchmark PremiumsNational averages 2014–2026
11. KFF
    Marketplace Enrollment (plan selections), 2014–2026CMS and ASPE open enrollment data
12. KFF
    What We Know So Far About 2026 ACA Marketplace Enrollment, Premiums, and DeductiblesNet premiums $113 to $178; deductibles; metal shift
13. KFF
    ACA Marketplace Enrollment Is Down By 3 Million After Big Jump in Premium PaymentsEffectuated enrollment 22.1M to 19.2M
14. ASTHO
    ACA Enhanced Premium Tax Credits: Legislative Developments in 2025 and 2026Expiry and House vote 230–196
15. healthinsurance.org
    Health insurance premium increases for 2027 and What's changing for 2027 open enrollmentApproved state rates; 2027 OOP max, HSA limits, state programmes (news/analysis)