Is Your Medicare Advantage Plan Being Dropped in 2027? Who Is Exiting and What to Do
If you got a non-renewal letter, yes: about 3.2 million Medicare Advantage enrollees, roughly 1 in 10, are in plans ending on 31 December 2026, according to industry analysis reported by CNN. Humana says its exits hit about 600,000 members and UnitedHealthcare about 390,000. You will not lose Medicare: if you do nothing you move to Original Medicare on 1 January 2027, and you can pick a new plan through 28 February 2027.
The short answer: plans are ending, coverage is not
Roughly 3 million Medicare Advantage members must change plans for 2027, the third straight year of record disruption, but nobody loses Medicare on 1 January. Plans that are ending had to send letters by 2 October 2026. If yours did, you have until 7 December in open enrollment, and a special window to 28 February 2027.
The headlines are real. Humana told investors on 29 July 2026 that its 2027 plan exits would affect about 600,000 members, and a UnitedHealth Group spokesperson said in October that the company is closing plans covering about 390,000 people. Together that is about 990,000, which is where the "nearly 1 million" headlines come from.
Across all insurers the number is larger. An analysis of CMS files by Medicare Market Insights, reported by CNN on 15 October 2026, puts it at about 3.2 million enrollees, nearly 11%, whose plans are ending. Actuarial firm Wakely counts about 3 million (8.8%) in plans closing without an automatic move to another plan.
What the headlines often miss: a dropped plan does not mean dropped coverage. Under Medicare rules, if you do not choose a new Medicare Advantage plan before yours ends, you are enrolled in Original Medicare. The real risks are a gap in drug coverage, a new network that excludes your doctors, and missing the window to buy a Medigap policy without health questions.
Which insurers are dropping Medicare Advantage plans for 2027?
Humana (about 600,000 members) and UnitedHealthcare (about 390,000) have the largest disclosed exits, while Centene is pulling standard plans from 344 counties. At least 11 insurers that sold individual plans in 2026, including Wellmark and Providence Health Plan, are leaving Medicare Advantage entirely.
Members in Medicare Advantage plans ending for 2027, by insurer
Source: Humana Q2 2026 call (via Becker's, Healthcare Finance News); UnitedHealth spokesperson (via TIKR/Beinsure); Healthcare Finance News; Medicare Market Insights via CNNView the data
| Label | Value |
|---|---|
| All insurers (industry analysis) | 3,200,000 |
| Humana | 600,000 |
| UnitedHealthcare | 390,000 |
| Providence Health Plan (wind-down) | 64,000 |
Humana. Humana has not named the counties or plans. CFO Celeste Mellet said most discontinued plans are rated 3.5 stars or lower for the 2027 bonus year, though she said star ratings were not the main driver. Humana expects to recapture slightly more than 40% of affected members, as it did after its 2025 exits, which leaves about 360,000 who must choose another insurer or Original Medicare.
UnitedHealthcare. The roughly 390,000 figure came from a company spokesperson on 1 October 2026; member letters were dated 2 October. Leerink Partners estimated UnitedHealthcare eliminated about 13% of its plans in 18 states. For 2026 it had already dropped plans covering about 600,000 enrollees, mainly PPOs.
| Insurer | 2027 exit footprint | Members disclosed? |
|---|---|---|
| Centene (Wellcare) | 344 counties; leaving Hawaii, Oklahoma, Tennessee | No |
| Wellmark BCBS | Exiting MA entirely: 98 Iowa + 43 South Dakota counties | No |
| UnitedHealthcare | About 140 counties (ConsumerAffairs); 63 per Stephens | ~390,000 |
| Aetna (CVS Health) | 123 counties; leaving Maryland and New Hampshire | No |
| Elevance Health | About 56 counties | No |
| Humana | Not disclosed; net adding 39 counties | ~600,000 |
| Providence Health Plan | Winding down MA entirely | 64,000+ |
Why are UnitedHealthcare and Humana cutting Medicare Advantage plans?
Insurers are cutting plans to rebuild profit margins after medical costs rose faster than Medicare payments. CMS finalized a 2.48% average payment increase for 2027, which insurers argued was not enough; Humana is targeting a pre-tax margin of at least 3% by 2028.
The common thread is margin over membership. Humana's CFO described the 2027 exits as removing "the lower tail of profitability and returns." Humana said in April that the gap between Medicare Advantage funding and medical cost trends had widened before it submitted 2027 bids in June.
UnitedHealthcare has cited unexpectedly high use of care and rising medical costs since 2025. Healthcare Dive notes insurers are sacrificing membership for margin for a second year in a row, and many are shifting toward special needs plans, which earn higher payments per member.
- Payment rates CMS finalized an average 2.48% MA rate increase for 2027, more than $13 billion in extra payments. Over 100 organizations had urged a higher rate.
- Star ratings Lower stars cut quality bonus payments. Most Humana exits are plans rated 3.5 stars or lower, and only 20% of its members were in 4-star-plus plans for 2026.
- Medical cost trend Seniors are using more services, and insurers say costs are rising faster than federal payments.
- Risk adjustment ConsumerAffairs reports federal payment and risk-adjustment changes as a pressure on margins; critics counter that insurers have overbilled through coding.
How many Medicare Advantage members are being forced to switch?
About 11% of Medicare Advantage enrollees face a plan termination for 2027, up from about 1% a year in 2018–2024. That makes 2027 the third straight year of unusually high disruption, after roughly 2 million people in 2025 and 2.9 million in 2026.
Share of Medicare Advantage enrollees forced out of their plan
Source: Johns Hopkins researchers in JAMA (via 24/7 Wall St) for 2018–2026; Medicare Market Insights via CNN for 2027View the data
| Label | Value |
|---|---|
| 2018–24 avg | 1.0% |
| 2025 | 6.9% |
| 2026 | 10.0% |
| 2027 | 11.0% |
Johns Hopkins researchers found the shock was uneven in 2026: rural members were forced out at about twice the urban rate, 12 states topped 20%, and in Vermont 92.2% of Medicare Advantage members had to find new coverage.
For 2027, the number of people with no Medicare Advantage plan available at all rises to 638,000 in 193 counties, from 399,000 in 123 counties in 2026, per the CNN-reported analysis. That is a 60% jump in people (KalQLater calculation: 638,000 / 399,000 − 1), about 1% of the 64.2 million beneficiaries with Parts A and B (KFF base).
Is Medicare Advantage collapsing?
No. Medicare Advantage covered a record 55% of eligible beneficiaries in 2026, up from 25% in 2010, and CMS says 97% of people will have 10 or more plans in 2027. What is changing is shape: fewer plans per person, fewer PPOs, more special needs plans, and higher out-of-pocket limits.
Medicare Advantage share of eligible Medicare beneficiaries, 2010–2026
Source: ASPE Issue Brief HP-2023-06 (2010–2023, from Medicare Trustees data); KFF (2026)View the data
| Label | Value |
|---|---|
| 2010 | 25% |
| 2015 | 34% |
| 2016 | 35% |
| 2017 | 37% |
| 2018 | 39% |
| 2019 | 41% |
| 2020 | 44% |
| 2021 | 47% |
| 2022 | 51% |
| 2023 | 52% |
| 2026 | 55% |
KFF counts 35.2 million Medicare Advantage enrollees in 2026, 55% of the 64.2 million people with Parts A and B. Growth has slowed to about 3% (1.1 million people) in 2026, from 7–10% a year in 2017–2024.
The genuine warning sign is the 2027 projection. CMS expects 34 million enrollees, about 47.4% of everyone in Medicare (a wider base than KFF's), and Healthcare Dive reports that is about 2 million fewer. CMS itself cautions that plan projections "have historically understated actual enrollment." A dip after three years of cuts is a slowdown, not a collapse.
What do 2027 Medicare Advantage premiums and plan choices look like?
CMS says the average 2027 Medicare Advantage premium falls 16.5% to $12.00 a month, but the typical beneficiary has 4 fewer plans to choose from (35, down from 39) and out-of-pocket caps are rising about 9–10%. About two-thirds of 2027 plans charge no premium beyond Part B.
| Measure | 2026 | 2027 | Change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average MA premium (CMS, all plans incl. SNPs) | $14.37 | $12.00 | −16.5% | CMS |
| Average premium, non-special-needs plans | n/a | $14.80 | +23% | Medicare Market Insights via CNN |
| Total MA plans nationally | 5,553 | 5,532 | −21 | CMS |
| MA plans available to average beneficiary | 39 | 35 | −4 (−10.3%) | KFF |
| MA-PD plans available to average beneficiary | 32 | 28 | −4 (−12.5%) | KFF |
| Plans with $0 premium | n/a | About two-thirds | No 2026 figure | Wakely |
| Average in-network out-of-pocket max (Wakely) | $5,330 | $5,874 | +$544 (+10.2%) | Wakely |
| Stand-alone Part D average premium | $35.09 | $36 | +<$1 | CMS |
| MA-PD average Part D premium | $11.32 | $7 | −$4.32 | CMS |
Medicare Advantage drug plans available to the average beneficiary
Source: KFF analysis of CMS landscape files · 1 Oct 2026View the data
| Label | Value |
|---|---|
| 2021 | 27 |
| 2024 | 36 |
| 2026 | 32 |
| 2027 | 28 |
The headline premium drop is real but flattering. CMS's average is weighted toward special needs plans, which are growing. For ordinary, non-special-needs plans, Medicare Market Insights found the average premium rising 23% to $14.80, and 70% of enrollees face a higher out-of-pocket cap, versus 35% last year.
What happens if your Medicare Advantage plan is discontinued?
If you do nothing, you will be moved to Original Medicare on 1 January 2027, but you will not have Part D drug coverage unless you choose a plan. You can pick a new Medicare Advantage plan from 15 October to 7 December 2026, or in a special enrollment period from 8 December 2026 to 28 February 2027.
| Date | What happens |
|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2026 | Continuing plans' Annual Notice of Change due |
| 2 Oct 2026 | Non-renewal letters due for plans ending 31 Dec |
| 15 Oct 2026 | Annual open enrollment opens |
| 1 Nov 2026 | Earliest date to apply for Medigap with guaranteed issue (60 days before coverage ends) |
| 7 Dec 2026 | Open enrollment closes |
| 8 Dec 2026 | Special enrollment period for non-renewals opens |
| 31 Dec 2026 | Ending plan's last day; choose by now to avoid a gap |
| 1 Jan 2027 | New plan starts, or default to Original Medicare |
| 28 Feb 2027 | Special enrollment period ends |
| 4 Mar 2027 | Medigap guaranteed-issue window closes (63 days after 31 Dec) |
Medicare.gov says that if your plan's contract is not renewed, you can switch "between December 8 and the last day in February of the following year," and if you do not join another Medicare Advantage plan you will be enrolled in Original Medicare. A new plan starts on the first day of the month after you enroll, so a choice made in January starts 1 February.
The letter timeline is tight. 24/7 Wall St notes that a 2 October notice gives 90 days before coverage ends but only 66 days before open enrollment closes on 7 December. If you received an Annual Notice of Change instead, your plan continues but benefits, networks or costs may change.
Can you get Medigap without health questions if your plan is dropped?
Yes. If your Medicare Advantage plan leaves Medicare or your area and you return to Original Medicare, you have a guaranteed right to buy Medigap Plan A, B, C, D, F, G, K or L, applying from 60 days before to 63 days after your coverage ends. Insurers cannot refuse you or price on health history in that window.
This is the most valuable and most overlooked right in a plan exit. Outside your first Medigap open enrollment period, insurers in most states can ask health questions and decline you. A plan termination reopens that door, but only briefly, and only if you go to Original Medicare. Medicare.gov is explicit that you cannot use the right to move to another Medicare Advantage plan.
If you had a Medigap policy before you joined Medicare Advantage, you can buy that same policy back if the insurer still sells it. Some states give broader rights, so check with your State Health Insurance Assistance Program or insurance department.
- Average premium $12.00 (CMS), often $0
- Network rules and prior authorization
- Annual in-network cap: average $5,874 (Wakely)
- Drug coverage usually included
- Plan could exit again next year
- Medigap Plan G roughly $150–$250 a month (24/7 Wall St estimate)
- Part D about $36 a month (CMS average)
- Any doctor or hospital that takes Medicare
- Guaranteed issue only within the 63-day window
- Higher fixed cost, far more predictable bills
What should you do if your Medicare Advantage plan is ending?
Confirm what your letter says, list your doctors and drugs, compare plans on Medicare.gov's Plan Finder, and decide before 7 December if you can. If you want Medigap, apply by 4 March 2027 to keep guaranteed-issue rights.
- 1Read the letter type
A non-renewal notice means your plan ends 31 December. An Annual Notice of Change means it continues with changes. A crosswalk letter means you will be moved to another plan automatically; check it like a new plan.
- 2List your doctors, hospitals and prescriptions
Network and formulary fit matter more than premium. Have your drug names and doses ready.
- 3Compare on Medicare.gov Plan Finder
Look at the out-of-pocket maximum, drug deductible and copays, not just the premium. Average drug deductibles are rising 23% to $509, per the CNN-reported analysis.
- 4Decide on Medigap early
If Original Medicare plus Medigap appeals, apply from 1 November 2026. Guaranteed issue ends 63 days after coverage ends, 4 March 2027 for a 31 December end.
- 5Do not forget Part D
If you choose Original Medicare, pick a stand-alone drug plan so you are not left without drug coverage.
- 6Enroll by 7 December, or at latest 31 December
Choosing in open enrollment avoids a gap. The special enrollment period to 28 February 2027 is a safety net, not a plan.
- 7Get free help
Call 1-800-MEDICARE (1-800-633-4227) or your State Health Insurance Assistance Program (SHIP) for unbiased counselling.
What to watch for Medicare Advantage in 2027 and beyond
The key numbers to watch are actual January 2027 enrollment, the 2028 payment rate announced in spring 2027, and whether insurers' margin repair lets them re-expand. Three years of exits show plan stability can no longer be assumed.
Open enrollment results will show whether enrollment really falls to CMS's projected 34 million or, as in past years, beats the projection. Humana has said it is targeting at least a 3% pre-tax margin by 2028; if it and UnitedHealthcare hit their goals, the pressure to cut further could ease.
Expect continued growth in special needs plans. Wakely reports chronic-condition plan offerings up 34% for 2027 after 56% growth in 2026, and 10 new carriers entering with 42 plans while 34 exit. For retirees, the practical lesson is to reread your plan materials every autumn. For your 2027 Social Security raise, see our Social Security COLA 2027 explainer.
Claims vs evidence
“"Medicare Advantage is collapsing."”
MA covered a record 55% of eligible beneficiaries in 2026 (KFF). CMS projects 34 million for 2027 and says 97% of people will have 10+ plans. Growth has slowed, and enrollment may dip.
False“"You'll lose coverage on January 1."”
If you do nothing you are enrolled in Original Medicare (Medicare.gov). The real gap risk is Part D drug coverage, which you must choose separately.
False“"UnitedHealthcare and Humana are dropping nearly 1 million seniors."”
About 600,000 (Humana) + 390,000 (UHC) members are in ending plans. But Humana expects to keep just over 40% in other Humana plans, so fewer leave the insurer.
Partly true“"Medicare Advantage premiums are falling 16% in 2027."”
CMS's weighted average falls from $14.37 to $12.00, but non-special-needs plans rise 23% to $14.80 on average, and out-of-pocket caps rise about 9–10%.
Misleading“"Millions must find a new plan for 2027."”
About 3.2 million (CNN-reported analysis) or 3 million (Wakely) enrollees are in plans ending without automatic transfer.
True“"You can switch back to Medigap any time."”
Guaranteed issue applies only from 60 days before to 63 days after MA coverage ends, and only if you return to Original Medicare.
FalseFrequently asked questions
Is UnitedHealthcare dropping Medicare Advantage plans in 2027?
Yes. A UnitedHealth spokesperson said in October 2026 that it is closing plans covering about 390,000 people for 2027. Leerink estimated about 13% of its plans were eliminated across 18 states. Affected members received letters dated 2 October 2026. Many may be offered another UnitedHealthcare plan in their area.
How many Humana Medicare Advantage members are losing their plan?
About 600,000, roughly 8% of Humana's 7.2 million Medicare Advantage members, per its 29 July 2026 earnings call. Humana expects to move just over 40% into other Humana plans, leaving about 360,000 to pick another insurer or Original Medicare. It has not published a county list.
What happens if my Medicare Advantage plan is discontinued and I do nothing?
You are automatically enrolled in Original Medicare when your plan ends on 31 December 2026, so you keep hospital and doctor coverage. You will not have drug coverage unless you join a Part D plan, and you may face higher out-of-pocket costs without a Medigap policy.
How long do I have to choose a new plan if mine is not renewed?
You can choose during open enrollment, 15 October to 7 December 2026, or in a special enrollment period from 8 December 2026 to 28 February 2027. A plan chosen after 31 December starts the first day of the following month, so enrolling earlier avoids a gap.
Do I have guaranteed issue rights for Medigap if my Advantage plan leaves?
Yes, if you return to Original Medicare. You can buy Medigap Plan A, B, C, D, F, G, K or L without health questions, applying from 60 days before to 63 days after your Advantage coverage ends. For a 31 December 2026 end date, that means 1 November 2026 to 4 March 2027.
Are Medicare Advantage premiums going up in 2027?
On average CMS says no: the weighted average falls 16.5% from $14.37 to $12.00 a month. But an industry analysis finds non-special-needs plan premiums rising 23% to $14.80, and average in-network out-of-pocket limits rising about 9–10%, so many members will pay more overall.
How many Medicare Advantage plans are available in 2027?
CMS counts about 5,532 plans nationally, 21 fewer than 2026. KFF says the average beneficiary can choose from 35 Medicare Advantage plans in 2027, down from 39, including 28 with drug coverage, down from a peak of 36 in 2024.
Why are insurers leaving Medicare Advantage?
Mainly to restore profit margins. Insurers say medical costs are rising faster than Medicare payments, which CMS raised by an average 2.48% for 2027. Lower star ratings also cut bonus payments; most Humana exits involve plans rated 3.5 stars or below.
How we built this analysis
- Member counts by insurer come from company statements: Humana's 29 July 2026 earnings call (~600,000) and a UnitedHealth spokesperson's 1 October 2026 statement (~390,000), as reported by Becker's, Healthcare Finance News, TIKR and Beinsure. These count members in discontinued plans, not people leaving the insurer.
- All-insurer totals use the Medicare Market Insights analysis reported by CNN (≈3.2 million, ~11%) and Wakely's analysis of CMS landscape and crosswalk files (≈3 million, 8.8%). We present both because their definitions differ.
- KalQLater calculations: big-two share of terminations = 990,000 / 3,200,000 = 30.9%; Humana members needing a new insurer = 600,000 × (1 − 0.40) = 360,000; annual value of CMS premium drop = ($14.37 − $12.00) × 12 = $28.44; MOOP change = $5,874 − $5,330 = $544 (+10.2%); plan options change = 4 / 39 = −10.3% and 4 / 32 = −12.5%; no-plan population change = 638,000 / 399,000 − 1 = +60%.
- Date arithmetic: Medigap guaranteed-issue window = 31 Dec 2026 − 60 days = 1 Nov 2026 to 31 Dec 2026 + 63 days = 4 Mar 2027. Notice gap: 2 Oct to 7 Dec 2026 = 66 days; 2 Oct to 31 Dec = 90 days.
- Worked example: Medigap Plan G ($150–$250, 24/7 Wall St estimate) + Part D ($36, CMS 2027 average) = $186–$286/month = $2,232–$3,432/year; minus the $12 average MA premium × 12 = $2,088–$3,288 more per year. Excludes Part B, which both options pay.
- MA penetration chart combines ASPE (2010–2023, based on Medicare Trustees data) with KFF (2026). Both define the base as beneficiaries with Parts A and B. Years without an exact figure in our opened sources are omitted rather than interpolated.
Limitations
Insurers have not published county-by-county lists of every plan ending, so we cannot tell you whether a specific plan is affected; your letter and Medicare.gov's Plan Finder are the authoritative check. Insurer member counts are company estimates made before open enrollment, and the 3.2 million total is a private analysis, not a CMS figure. Medigap prices and state rules vary widely. CMS had not announced the 2027 Part B premium as of 23 October 2026. This article is general information, not financial, legal or medical advice; a State Health Insurance Assistance Program counsellor can review your situation for free.
Spotted an error? See our corrections policy. Read how we work in our methodology and editorial standards.
Sources
- Centers for Medicare & Medicaid ServicesMedicare Advantage and Medicare Prescription Drug Programs Expected to Remain Stable in 20272027 average premiums, plan counts, access, enrollment projection (28 Sep 2026)
- Medicare.govSpecial Enrollment PeriodsNon-renewal SEP: 8 Dec to last day of February; default to Original Medicare
- Medicare.govWhen can I buy a Medigap policy?Guaranteed issue: Plans A, B, C, D, F, G, K, L; 60 days before to 63 days after
- KFFMedicare Advantage in 2026: Enrollment Update and Key Trends35.2M enrollees, 55% of eligible, insurer shares
- KFFThe Average Medicare Beneficiary has 28 Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug Plan Options for 2027Plan options per beneficiary, 2021–2027
- ASPE, U.S. Department of Health and Human ServicesMedicare Advantage Overview: A Primer on Enrollment and Spending (HP-2023-06)MA penetration 2010–2023
- Wakely Consulting GroupMedicare Advantage 2027: Beyond the Plan Count≈3M in terminated plans, $0-premium share, MOOP, C-SNP growth
- Becker's Payer IssuesHumana to exit Medicare Advantage plans covering 600,000 members in 2027Humana Q2 2026 call details, 2.48% rate, star ratings
- Healthcare Finance NewsHumana exit notices loom for 600,000 Medicare Advantage membersRecapture rate, Providence 64,000+, notice and Medigap timing
- TIKRUnitedHealth shuts plans for 390,000 Medicare Advantage membersUHC 390,000 (spokesperson to Bloomberg, 1 Oct 2026); Leerink 13% / 18 states
- Beinsure
- CNN (via KTVZ)More than 3 million Medicare Advantage enrollees need to find new plans for 2027Medicare Market Insights: 3.2M, non-SNP premiums, no-plan counties
- Healthcare DiveHere's how much insurers are cutting Medicare Advantage plans for 2027Stephens county exits, Devoted expansion, reasons
- Becker's Hospital Review / ConsumerAffairsMedicare Advantage looks stable for 2027. Underneath, it's shiftingCentene, Aetna county and state exits; full exits
- 24/7 Wall StBeing forced out of a Medicare Advantage plan was a 1% event for years. In 2026 it hit 10%Johns Hopkins/JAMA forced-exit rates; letter deadlines; Medigap cost estimate