How Much Will Your Social Security Check Rise in 2027? The 3.6% COLA, After Medicare
Social Security checks will rise 3.6% in 2027, lifting the average retired worker’s benefit from $2,095 to $2,170 a month (+$75). The Social Security Administration announced the figure on 14 October 2026; it applies to December 2026 benefits paid in January 2027, and SSI rises from the 31 December 2026 payment. If Medicare’s projected Part B increase of $6.60 holds, the average retiree keeps about $68 of that raise.
The short answer: a real 3.6% raise, mostly intact after Medicare
The 2027 COLA is confirmed at 3.6%, not a projection. That is the largest increase since the 8.7% paid in 2023, and on current Medicare projections the Part B premium will claim only about 6% to 12% of the raise for typical benefits, versus roughly a third in 2026.
Search interest in the social security administration cola increase passed 500,000 US searches this week, alongside 100,000+ for trust fund depletion and Medicare Advantage. The timing is not a coincidence: SSA published the 2027 COLA on 14 October, the same morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics released September inflation data, and Medicare open enrollment began the next day.
The headline is good news for retirees by recent standards. A 3.6% increase is above the 2.8% paid in 2026 and the 2.5% paid in 2025. The catch is that inflation is running at a similar pace: the all-items Consumer Price Index rose 3.7% in the year to September 2026, driven by a 34.2% jump in gasoline prices.
Our verdict on the trend: the raise is real and confirmed, Medicare will take back less of it than last year, but it only matches inflation rather than beating it. And the louder claim online, that Social Security is "going broke," is misleading: the trust fund problem is a projected benefit cut of about 22% in late 2032, not a disappearance of benefits.
2027 COLA calculator: your raise after Medicare Part B
Enter your current monthly Social Security benefit to see your 2027 gross increase at the announced 3.6% COLA, your new gross benefit, and what is left after the projected Medicare Part B premium increase. Defaults use SSA’s announced COLA and the Medicare Trustees’ Part B projection; change them if your situation differs.
- Gross monthly increase
- $75.42 ($905.04 a year)
- New gross monthly benefit
- $2,170.42
- Change in Part B premium
- $6.60
- Net monthly change after Part B
- $68.82 ($825.84 a year)
- Check after Part B
- $1,892.10 → $1,960.92
- Share of COLA absorbed by Part B
- 8.8%
SSA rounds benefits down to the dime and payments down to the dollar, so your check can be up to about $1 lower. Assumes the standard Part B premium (higher earners pay surcharges); excludes Part D, Medicare Advantage premiums and tax withholding. Not financial advice.
What is the Social Security COLA for 2027?
SSA set the 2027 COLA at 3.6% on 14 October 2026. It applies to almost 72 million Social Security beneficiaries and about 7.3 million SSI recipients. The average retired worker’s benefit rises by about $75, from $2,095 to $2,170 a month.
The increase technically applies to December 2026 benefits, which are paid in January 2027. That is why the January check is the first one most people will see change. SSI recipients get theirs a little earlier: SSA says increased SSI payments begin with the 31 December 2026 payment.
SSA’s fact sheet gives estimated average benefits before and after the adjustment. Every category rises by roughly 3.6%, with dollar gains ranging from $59 for disabled workers to $142 for a widowed mother with two children.
| Beneficiary type | Before 3.6% COLA | After 3.6% COLA | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| All retired workers | $2,095 | $2,170 | +$75 |
| Aged couple, both receiving benefits | $3,238 | $3,355 | +$117 |
| Widowed mother and two children | $3,932 | $4,074 | +$142 |
| Aged widow(er) alone | $1,936 | $2,005 | +$69 |
| Disabled worker, spouse and one or more children | $2,970 | $3,077 | +$107 |
| All disabled workers | $1,642 | $1,701 | +$59 |
When will you see your new amount? SSA says people with a my Social Security account who opt into paperless notices by 18 November 2026 can read their COLA notice online; everyone else gets a one-page paper notice by mail in December. Medicare enrollees will see their 2027 premium deduction in the same notice.
How is the COLA calculated? The CPI-W third-quarter rule
The COLA equals the percentage rise in the average CPI-W for July, August and September versus the same three months a year earlier. For 2027 that was 328.746 against 317.265, an increase of 3.6% after rounding to one decimal place.
Since 1975, COLAs have been automatic. SSA uses the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), not the more widely quoted CPI-U. It averages the three monthly index values for the third quarter and compares them with the previous year’s third-quarter average.
CPI-W index, third quarter 2025 vs 2026
Source: SSA Office of the Chief Actuary, Latest COLAView the data
| Label | Value |
|---|---|
| Jul 2025 | 316.3 |
| Aug 2025 | 317.3 |
| Sep 2025 | 318.1 |
| Jul 2026 | 327.1 |
| Aug 2026 | 328.5 |
| Sep 2026 | 330.7 |
- 1Add the three Q3 2026 values
327.104 + 328.481 + 330.654 = 986.239, so the average is 328.746.
- 2Do the same for Q3 2025
316.349 + 317.306 + 318.139 = 951.794, so the average is 317.265.
- 3Compute the percentage change
(328.746 - 317.265) / 317.265 = 3.62%, which SSA rounds to 3.6%.
Is 3.6% a big COLA? Social Security increases 2010 to 2027
Yes, by the standards of the past 15 years. The 2027 COLA is the largest since the 8.7% paid in 2023, and well above the 2.4% average for checks paid from 2010 to 2027. Three years in that span had no increase at all.
Social Security COLA by year paid, 2010–2027
Source: SSA Office of the Chief Actuary, COLA series; SSA press release 14 Oct 2026View the data
| Label | Value |
|---|---|
| 2010 | 0.0% |
| 2011 | 0.0% |
| 2012 | 3.6% |
| 2013 | 1.7% |
| 2014 | 1.5% |
| 2015 | 1.7% |
| 2016 | 0.0% |
| 2017 | 0.3% |
| 2018 | 2.0% |
| 2019 | 2.8% |
| 2020 | 1.6% |
| 2021 | 1.3% |
| 2022 | 5.9% |
| 2023 | 8.7% |
| 2024 | 3.2% |
| 2025 | 2.5% |
| 2026 | 2.8% |
| 2027 | 3.6% |
The pattern tracks inflation closely. Near-zero inflation after the financial crisis and the 2015 oil slump produced zero COLAs in 2010, 2011 and 2016. The 2021–2022 price surge produced 5.9% and 8.7%. The 2027 figure reflects a renewed rise in energy prices: BLS reports the energy index up 20.4% over the year to September 2026.
Over the last decade of payments (2018–2027), the average COLA was 3.4% by our calculation. That is higher than the decade before, but it was concentrated in the 2022–2023 spike.
How much of the 2027 COLA will Medicare Part B take?
On the Trustees’ projection, Part B rises $6.60 to $209.50 a month, taking 6% to 12% of the COLA for benefits between $1,500 and $3,000. A retiree on $2,000 would gain $72 gross and about $65.40 net. In 2026 the same retiree lost about a third of the raise to Part B.
Most retirees on Medicare have the Part B premium deducted directly from their Social Security check, so the net raise is what matters. The 2026 standard premium is $202.90 a month (CMS). The 2026 Medicare Trustees Report projects $209.50 for 2027, with the deductible rising from $283 to a projected $292. CMS has not yet confirmed either figure.
| Current benefit | 3.6% COLA | New gross | Part B increase (proj.) | Net raise | Share of COLA eaten |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | +$54.00 | $1,554.00 | -$6.60 | +$47.40 | 12.2% |
| $2,000 | +$72.00 | $2,072.00 | -$6.60 | +$65.40 | 9.2% |
| $2,500 | +$90.00 | $2,590.00 | -$6.60 | +$83.40 | 7.3% |
| $3,000 | +$108.00 | $3,108.00 | -$6.60 | +$101.40 | 6.1% |
Net monthly raise after projected Part B increase, by benefit level
Source: KalQLater calculation from SSA (3.6% COLA) and 2026 Medicare Trustees Report (Part B projection)View the data
| Label | Value |
|---|---|
| $1,500 | $47.40 |
| $2,000 | $65.40 |
| $2,500 | $83.40 |
| $3,000 | $101.40 |
Higher earners pay more. In 2026, individuals with modified adjusted gross income above $109,000 (joint above $218,000) pay income-related surcharges that push the premium to between $284.10 and $689.90 a month. The 2027 brackets will be published with the official premium.
Does the 2027 COLA keep up with inflation?
Roughly, but not with room to spare. The 3.6% COLA is just below the 3.7% CPI-U rise and the 3.9% CPI-W rise for the year to September 2026. Retirees whose costs are dominated by gasoline will feel behind; those whose costs are mostly food and housing may come out slightly ahead.
The COLA is backward-looking. It compensates for prices that already rose between the third quarter of 2025 and the third quarter of 2026. If prices keep climbing at September’s pace (CPI-U rose 0.6% in that single month), the raise will be eroded during 2027 before the next adjustment arrives.
The mix matters. According to BLS, over the year to September 2026 gasoline rose 34.2% and energy 20.4%, while food rose only 2.5% and shelter 3.2%. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, was 2.6%. A retiree who drives little and rents or owns outright is likely to see the 3.6% COLA match or exceed their personal inflation.
- CPI-W, 12 months to Sep 2026: 3.9% The index the COLA is based on, measured month to month rather than as a quarterly average.
- CPI-U, 12 months to Sep 2026: 3.7% The headline inflation number most news reports quote.
- Core CPI: 2.6% Shows that much of the recent rise is energy, which can reverse quickly.
- 2027 COLA: 3.6% Based on the Q3 average, which smooths out the September spike.
Consumers are noticing. Bloomberg reported on 23 October 2026 that US consumer sentiment had fallen to a five-month low, and the inflation pressure that produced this COLA is the same pressure squeezing confidence.
What else changes in 2027? Taxable maximum, earnings test and SSI
The taxable maximum rises to $192,300, the under-full-retirement-age earnings limit to $25,560, and the maximum federal SSI payment to $1,029 for an individual. These figures come from SSA’s 2027 COLA fact sheet; most are indexed to wages rather than prices.
| Item | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| Maximum taxable earnings (Social Security tax) | $184,500 | $192,300 |
| Quarter of coverage (one work credit) | $1,890 | $1,970 |
| Earnings test: under full retirement age | $24,480/yr ($2,040/mo) | $25,560/yr ($2,130/mo) |
| Earnings test: year you reach full retirement age | $65,160/yr ($5,430/mo) | $67,920/yr ($5,660/mo) |
| SSI federal payment: individual | $994/mo | $1,029/mo |
| SSI federal payment: couple | $1,491/mo | $1,544/mo |
| Substantial gainful activity (non-blind) | $1,690/mo | $1,770/mo |
| Substantial gainful activity (blind) | $2,830/mo | $2,950/mo |
| Trial work period | $1,210/mo | $1,270/mo |
- Workers earning above $184,500 Will pay the 6.2% Social Security tax on an extra $7,800 of wages in 2027, or up to $483.60 more by our calculation (self-employed pay 12.4%).
- Early claimers who still work SSA withholds $1 for every $2 earned above $25,560. In the year you reach full retirement age, it withholds $1 for every $3 above $67,920, counting only months before your birthday month.
- Workers building eligibility You need $1,970 of earnings for each credit in 2027, so $7,880 earns the maximum four credits for the year.
- SSI recipients The individual maximum rises by $35 a month and the couple maximum by $53, starting with the payment dated 31 December 2026.
Is Social Security going broke? The 2032 trust fund depletion date
No, but a cut is scheduled. The 2026 Trustees Report projects the retirement (OASI) trust fund will be depleted in late 2032, after which incoming payroll taxes would pay 78% of benefits: an automatic cut of about 22% unless Congress acts.
Searches for social security trust fund depletion topped 100,000 this week. The facts from the June 2026 Trustees Report: the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance fund that pays retirement benefits runs out in the fourth quarter of 2032, with 78% of scheduled benefits payable at that point. If the retirement and disability funds were combined, depletion would come in 2034 with 83% payable, unchanged from last year.
Depletion does not mean zero. Social Security is mostly funded by current payroll taxes; the trust fund is a reserve that covers the gap between taxes and benefits. That reserve stood at $2.56 trillion at the end of 2025 after falling $160 billion during the year. When it is gone, the law only allows SSA to pay what comes in.
The long-run gap also widened. The 75-year actuarial deficit rose to 4.42% of taxable payroll from 3.82% in the 2025 report. Medicare’s hospital insurance (Part A) fund faces a similar timeline: KFF, citing the 2026 Medicare Trustees Report, puts its depletion in the second quarter of 2033.
Medicare Advantage and the SSA database cleanup: what is behind the other searches?
Medicare Advantage searches reflect open enrollment (15 October to 7 December 2026), and the database story is SSA’s 20 October claim to have corrected records for nearly 15% of active Social Security numbers. SSA has not said the cleanup changes anyone’s benefits.
Medicare Advantage. CMS says the weighted average Medicare Advantage premium will fall from $14.37 a month in 2026 to $12.00 in 2027, and it projects about 34 million enrollees, roughly 47.4% of people with Medicare. Stand-alone Part D drug plan premiums average $36, up from $35.09. Note that Medicare Advantage members generally still pay the Part B premium on top of any plan premium.
The SSA database cleanup. In a 20 October press release, SSA said it had added dates of death to 17 million records that lacked them and updated about 25 million records missing citizenship information using DHS data, with another 8.5 million citizenship records still being corrected. The agency frames this as preventing improper payments. It does not say living beneficiaries’ payments will change, and it is unrelated to the COLA calculation.
What should you do before the January 2027 increase?
Check your COLA notice in late November or December, budget on the net figure rather than 3.6%, and use open enrollment before 7 December to review Medicare costs. Workers near the earnings test limit should recheck their 2027 income plans.
- 1Set up or log in to my Social Security
Opt into paperless notices by 18 November 2026 to see your exact 2027 benefit and Medicare deduction online in late November.
- 2Budget on your net raise
Use the calculator above with your own benefit. For most people on the standard premium, expect the projected Part B increase to take $6.60 of the raise.
- 3Wait for the official Part B figure
CMS typically announces 2027 premiums in mid-November. If it differs from $209.50, adjust the calculator’s Part B field.
- 4Review your Medicare plan by 7 December
Compare Medicare Advantage and Part D options during open enrollment; drug plan premiums and formularies change every year.
- 5Recheck work income if you claimed early
The 2027 earnings test limit is $25,560 (or $67,920 in the year you reach full retirement age).
- 6Do not plan around the trust fund headline alone
A potential cut is projected for late 2032, not 2027. It matters most for people who will rely on benefits for decades.
Claims vs evidence
“Social Security checks are going up 3.6% in 2027.”
SSA announced a 3.6% COLA on 14 October 2026, effective with December 2026 benefits paid in January 2027.
True“The average retiree gets about $75 more a month.”
SSA’s fact sheet shows the average retired-worker benefit rising from $2,095 to $2,170. After the projected $6.60 Part B increase, the net gain is about $68.40.
Partly true“Medicare will wipe out most of the 2027 raise.”
The Trustees project Part B rising $6.60 to $209.50, about 9% of the COLA on a $2,000 benefit. That was closer to true in 2026, when Part B took about 32%.
False“The 2027 COLA beats inflation.”
3.6% vs CPI-U 3.7% and CPI-W 3.9% for the year to September 2026. It roughly matches, but does not beat, current inflation.
Misleading“Social Security is going broke.”
The OASI trust fund is projected to be depleted in Q4 2032, after which 78% of benefits remain payable from payroll taxes.
Misleading“The 2027 Part B premium is $209.50.”
That is the 2026 Medicare Trustees Report projection. CMS has not announced the official 2027 premium as of 23 October 2026.
Too earlyFrequently asked questions
How much is the Social Security COLA for 2027?
The 2027 COLA is 3.6%, announced by the Social Security Administration on 14 October 2026. It raises the average retired worker’s benefit from $2,095 to $2,170 a month, about $75 more. It applies to almost 72 million Social Security beneficiaries and about 7.3 million SSI recipients.
When will I get the 2027 Social Security increase?
The 3.6% increase applies to December 2026 benefits, which are paid in January 2027, so your January check is the first to change. SSI recipients see it earlier, starting with the payment dated 31 December 2026. Your exact new amount appears in your COLA notice in late November or December.
What is the Medicare Part B premium for 2027?
As of 23 October 2026 it has not been announced. The 2026 Medicare Trustees Report projects $209.50 a month, up $6.60 from the 2026 standard premium of $202.90, with the deductible projected to rise from $283 to $292. CMS usually confirms the figures in mid-November.
How is the Social Security COLA calculated?
SSA compares the average CPI-W for July, August and September with the same quarter a year earlier. For 2027, the Q3 2026 average of 328.746 was 3.6% above the Q3 2025 average of 317.265. If the index does not rise, there is no COLA; benefits are never cut by the formula.
What is the Social Security taxable maximum for 2027?
The maximum earnings subject to the 6.2% Social Security payroll tax rise from $184,500 in 2026 to $192,300 in 2027, an increase of $7,800. Medicare’s 1.45% hospital insurance tax has no earnings cap.
How much will SSI pay in 2027?
The maximum federal SSI payment rises to $1,029 a month for an eligible individual and $1,544 for an eligible couple, up from $994 and $1,491 in 2026. Many states add a supplement on top. The increase starts with the payment dated 31 December 2026.
When will the Social Security trust fund run out?
The 2026 Trustees Report projects the retirement (OASI) trust fund will be depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032, after which 78% of scheduled benefits would still be payable. Combined with the disability fund, depletion would be in 2034 with 83% payable. Congress can change this with new legislation.
What is the 2027 earnings test limit for Social Security?
If you are under full retirement age all year, SSA withholds $1 for every $2 you earn above $25,560 in 2027. In the year you reach full retirement age, it withholds $1 for every $3 above $67,920, counting only months before you reach that age. There is no limit after that.
How we built this analysis
- COLA, average benefits, taxable maximum, earnings test, quarter of coverage, SSI and disability thresholds are taken directly from SSA’s 14 October 2026 press release, the COLA 2027 fact sheet and the Office of the Chief Actuary pages, accessed 23 October 2026.
- COLA verification: Q3 2026 CPI-W average (327.104 + 328.481 + 330.654) / 3 = 328.746; Q3 2025 average (316.349 + 317.306 + 318.139) / 3 = 317.265; (328.746 / 317.265) - 1 = 3.62%, rounded to 3.6% as SSA does.
- Worked examples: gross increase = benefit x 0.036; net raise = gross increase - (projected 2027 Part B $209.50 - 2026 Part B $202.90 = $6.60); share eaten = $6.60 / gross increase. Example for $2,000: $72.00 - $6.60 = $65.40; 6.60 / 72 = 9.2%. The 2026 comparison uses the 2.8% COLA and the $17.90 Part B increase: 17.90 / 56.00 = 32%.
- COLA history is SSA’s series re-labelled by the January the increase is first paid (SSA labels by December effective month). The 2010–2027 average (2.4%) and 2018–2027 average (3.4%) are simple arithmetic means of those 18 and 10 values.
- Trust fund illustration: $2,170 x 22% = $477.40; $2,170 - $477.40 = $1,692.60. The 22% is 100% minus the 78% payable at OASI depletion per the 2026 Trustees Report. Taxable maximum impact: $7,800 x 6.2% = $483.60.
- Medicare Part B 2027 figures are the 2026 Medicare Trustees Report intermediate projections (reported by AARP and KFF), not CMS determinations. The 2026 premium and IRMAA brackets are from the CMS 2026 fact sheet.
Limitations
The 2027 Part B premium and deductible are projections until CMS publishes them, typically in mid-November 2026; if they change, the net figures here change too. Our examples assume the standard Part B premium with no income-related surcharge, no Part D or Medicare Advantage plan premium deducted from the check, and no tax withholding. SSA rounds benefits down to the dime and payments down to the dollar, so actual checks can differ slightly. Trust fund dates are Trustees’ intermediate projections and depend on economic and demographic assumptions and on any future legislation. The consumer sentiment reference relies on a Bloomberg report and was not checked against the underlying survey. This article is general information, not financial, tax or legal advice.
Spotted an error? See our corrections policy. Read how we work in our methodology and editorial standards.
Sources
- Social Security AdministrationSocial Security Announces 3.6 Percent Benefit Increase for 20272027 COLA, beneficiary counts, SSI timing, notice dates
- Social Security AdministrationCOLA 2027 Fact SheetAverage benefits before/after, taxable maximum, earnings test, SSI, SGA
- SSA Office of the Chief ActuaryLatest Cost-of-Living AdjustmentCPI-W Q3 2025 and Q3 2026 values and COLA computation
- SSA Office of the Chief ActuaryCost-of-Living Adjustments (history)COLA series by effective year
- SSA Office of the Chief ActuarySSI Federal Payment Amounts for 2027SSI federal payment standard
- Social Security AdministrationCost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) InformationCOLA overview and 2027 amounts
- Social Security Administration2026 Social Security Trustees Report press release (9 June 2026)OASI 2032 / 78%, OASDI 2034 / 83%, reserves, actuarial deficit
- Social Security AdministrationSSN records cleanup press release (20 October 2026)Death dates and citizenship record corrections
- U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsConsumer Price Index News Release, September 2026CPI-U 3.7%, CPI-W 3.9%, core 2.6%, energy and gasoline
- Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services2026 Medicare Parts A & B Premiums and Deductibles2026 Part B $202.90, deductible $283, IRMAA brackets
- Centers for Medicare & Medicaid ServicesMedicare Advantage and Medicare Prescription Drug Programs Expected to Remain Stable in 2027Open enrollment dates, MA and Part D premiums
- KFFKey Facts About Medicare Spending Trends and Projections from the 2026 Medicare Trustees ReportHI depletion Q2 2033; projected Part B increase
- AARPMedicare Part B Premium 2027Trustees projection: $209.50 premium, $292 deductible (5 Oct 2026)
- Plan Sponsor Council of America2027 Social Security COLA Marks Biggest Increase in 5 YearsNews context and TSCL commentary