Is OpenAI Really Worth $1.25 Trillion? What an OpenAI IPO Would Mean

The short answer: possible, but the price assumes years of near-perfect growth

At $1.25 trillion, investors would pay about $25 for every $1 of OpenAI’s current annualized revenue, more than double the 11.1x average for the four largest US tech platforms. Those companies are highly profitable. OpenAI lost about $2.95 for every dollar of revenue it booked in 2025.

On 22 October 2026, CNBC reported that OpenAI is working on a raise of up to $30 billion at a $1.25 trillion pre-money valuation, led by Coatue and investors in the UAE. TechCrunch, which carried the report, said terms were still being negotiated and OpenAI did not comment. Treat the figure as a report, not a confirmed price.

What is confirmed: OpenAI closed $122 billion in committed capital at an $852 billion post-money valuation on 31 March 2026, and said on 8 June 2026 that it had submitted a confidential S-1 to the SEC. It has not set an IPO date.

Our view: the number is not absurd for a company whose run-rate revenue has gone from $2 billion to about $50 billion in under three years. Since late 2024, its valuation (up 8.0x) has grown about as fast as its run-rate revenue (up 8.3x). But the price leaves little room for a slowdown, and OpenAI’s spending commitments are far larger than its revenue today.

How fast has the OpenAI valuation grown?

OpenAI’s valuation has risen about 43-fold, from roughly $29 billion in early 2023 to a reported $1.25 trillion in October 2026. It went from $157 billion to $300 billion in five months, then to $500 billion, $852 billion and now, reportedly, $1.25 trillion.

The October 2026 talks are a step down from an earlier ask. About a month before, Bloomberg reported OpenAI was raising $30 billion at $1.4 trillion, according to TechCrunch. At $1.25 trillion, the new figure is $150 billion lower, but still about 47% above the confirmed $852 billion.

How much revenue does OpenAI actually make?

OpenAI told investors its annualized revenue was about $50 billion in late September 2026, up from $2 billion in 2023. It booked $13.07 billion of revenue in 2025. An earlier, widely reported $68–70 billion figure included partners’ gross revenue and was corrected.

Two numbers get mixed up. Run rate projects the latest month or quarter over a full year. Booked revenue is what actually came in. OpenAI booked about $13 billion in 2025, according to Reuters and the audited figures reported in June 2026. Its 2024 revenue was about $3.7 billion: Reuters said first-half 2025 revenue of $4.3 billion was roughly 16% more than all of 2024.

The October 2026 correction matters for the valuation. On 8 October, the FT and CNBC reported OpenAI had told investors its annualized revenue was about $50 billion as of late September, not the $68 billion widely cited. The higher number counted gross revenue from partner companies. Growth is still fast: CNBC reported run-rate growth of 77% in the third quarter, and 107% in enterprise.

Is OpenAI overvalued compared with Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet and Meta?

On price-to-sales, yes: OpenAI at $1.25 trillion would trade at 25.0x its run-rate revenue, versus 6.8x for Meta, 8.8x for Alphabet, 11.8x for Microsoft and 16.9x for Nvidia. On booked 2025 revenue, the multiple is about 96x.

The average of Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet and Meta is 11.1x sales. OpenAI at $1.25 trillion would be priced at about 2.3 times that average, and those four companies are all profitable today.

The closest comparison is Anthropic, which raised $65 billion at a $965 billion post-money valuation in May 2026 when its run rate had crossed $47 billion. That is about 20.5x. So OpenAI’s reported price is in line with what investors already pay for its main rival, which tells you the market is pricing the whole sector on growth, not current profit.

How much money is OpenAI losing?

OpenAI lost $38.5 billion in 2025 on $13 billion of revenue, according to audited financial documents reported in June 2026 and verified by the Financial Times. That is about $2.95 lost for every $1 of revenue.

The loss figures come from audited documents first published by writer Ed Zitron and independently verified by the FT, as reported by Quartz. They show spending of about $34 billion in 2025 against $13 billion of revenue, and a net loss of $38.5 billion. OpenAI has not published full financial statements; those would appear in a public S-1 before any IPO.

Not all of that loss is cash. Net loss can include non-cash items such as share-based pay and changes in the value of financial instruments. That is why the public S-1, with audited cash-flow statements, is the document investors are waiting for.

Can OpenAI afford its compute commitments?

OpenAI’s reported plan to spend about $600 billion on compute through 2030 equals 12 years of its current $50 billion annual revenue. Spread over 2026–2030, that averages $120 billion a year, about 2.4 times today’s run rate.

In November 2025, Sam Altman said OpenAI was looking at about $1.4 trillion of commitments over eight years. In February 2026, Reuters reported OpenAI had told investors it now expects roughly $600 billion of total compute spend through 2030, and projects more than $280 billion of revenue in 2030. The second figure is a company projection, not a result.

These deals overlap (the Oracle capacity is part of Stargate), so they should not be added up. Several are circular: Nvidia invests in OpenAI, and OpenAI spends on Nvidia chips. AMD gives OpenAI the right to buy AMD shares as OpenAI buys AMD GPUs. That is one reason critics call parts of the AI boom self-financing. For how the cloud giants fund their side, see Is Big Tech Really Hiding Trillions in AI Debt?.

The bull case is that compute is the bottleneck, not demand. OpenAI’s CFO wrote in January 2026 that compute grew from 0.2 GW in 2023 to about 1.9 GW in 2025 while revenue grew in step, and that more compute would have meant faster growth. The bear case is simple: if revenue growth slows, the commitments stay.

How many people use ChatGPT every week?

ChatGPT and OpenAI’s products passed 1 billion weekly users in 2026, up from 250 million in October 2024. OpenAI reported 900 million weekly users and 50 million paying subscribers in early 2026, so most users still pay nothing.

Scale is not the issue. Turning free users into revenue is. With 50 million subscribers out of about 900 million weekly users in early 2026, roughly 5.6% paid. OpenAI said in March 2026 that enterprise made up more than 40% of revenue.

Competition is also stronger than in 2023. Anthropic’s run rate was $47 billion in May 2026, by its own account, close to OpenAI’s. AI tools are also reshaping software markets, as our look at Salesforce vs AI CRM shows.

When is the OpenAI IPO, and what has to happen first?

There is no OpenAI IPO date. OpenAI confirmed on 8 June 2026 that it submitted a confidential S-1 but said it has not decided on timing. Several outlets report a 2027 target; that is unconfirmed.

1. 1
   Structure: done (October 2025)

   OpenAI’s for-profit arm became OpenAI Group PBC, a public benefit corporation, on 28 October 2025. That is the kind of company that can sell shares to the public.

2. 2
   Nonprofit control: stays

   The nonprofit OpenAI Foundation appoints and can replace every Group board member. It holds 26% of the equity (about $130B at the time) plus a warrant for more if the share price rises more than tenfold after 15 years. Public shareholders would own a company they cannot control.

3. 3
   Microsoft: about 27%

   Microsoft held roughly 27% of OpenAI Group after the recapitalization, valued at about $135 billion, with IP rights to OpenAI models through 2032. Employees and other investors held 47%.

4. 4
   Public S-1: not yet

   The confidential draft lets the SEC review it privately. A public S-1 with audited financials must be filed before a roadshow. Nothing has been made public as of 23 October 2026.

5. 5
   Timing: reported only

   TechCrunch and Startup Fortune describe the $30B round as a bridge to an IPO expected in 2027, and Yahoo Finance reported a 2027 target. OpenAI itself has said it may be a while, because some steps are easier as a private company.

Is OpenAI bigger than Berkshire Hathaway, Tesla or Meta?

At $1.25 trillion, OpenAI would be worth more than Berkshire Hathaway ($1.16T) and about three Oracles, but less than Tesla ($1.47T) and Meta ($1.65T). TechCrunch notes it would be the highest valuation ever for a private company.

• Bigger than Berkshire Hathaway Berkshire’s market cap was $1.16T on 23 October 2026, about $90B below OpenAI’s reported price.
• About 3.2 Oracles Oracle, a major OpenAI compute partner, was worth $388B, down 50.3% over the period StockAnalysis shows. $1,250B ÷ $388B = 3.2.
• Smaller than Tesla and Meta Tesla was $1.47T and Meta $1.65T. OpenAI would be about 76% of Meta’s value with about a fifth of its revenue.
• Far smaller than Nvidia, Alphabet and Microsoft Nvidia ($5.11T), Alphabet ($3.94T) and Microsoft ($3.90T) are each three to four times larger.

Can you buy OpenAI stock, and how exposed are you already?

You cannot buy OpenAI shares on a stock exchange today. Most ordinary investors already have indirect exposure through Microsoft, which owned about 27% of OpenAI after the 2025 restructuring. At $1.25 trillion, that stake would be worth roughly $290–340 billion, about 7–9% of Microsoft’s market value.

1. 1
   Check your index funds

   An S&P 500 or Nasdaq-100 fund holds Microsoft, Nvidia, Oracle, AMD and Alphabet, all with large financial ties to OpenAI or AI spending. You already own some of the AI trade.

2. 2
   Understand the Microsoft link

   27% × $1,250B = $337.5B, or 8.7% of Microsoft’s $3.90T market cap. If later rounds diluted Microsoft (for example, if the $122B raised at $852B was all new shares, its stake would fall to about 23%), the value is about $289B, or 7.4%. Microsoft does not disclose its current percentage monthly.

3. 3
   Be wary of 'pre-IPO' offers

   Funds and platforms selling 'OpenAI exposure' often hold indirect stakes with high fees and limited rights. OpenAI’s 2026 round raised over $3B from individuals, but only through bank channels.

4. 4
   If an IPO comes, read the S-1

   Look for cash burn, the Microsoft revenue-share terms, compute obligations, and how much control the Foundation keeps.

5. 5
   Size it like a bet

   A single company priced at 25x sales with large losses can fall sharply. Keep any direct position small relative to diversified holdings.

Is the OpenAI valuation a sign of an AI bubble?

There are bubble signs, but not proof. Prices rest on projections, deals are circular, and Oracle’s value roughly halved. Yet OpenAI’s revenue has grown as fast as its valuation since 2024, and demand is real: over 1 billion weekly users.

OpenAI valuation: claims vs evidence

Frequently asked questions

How we built this analysis

• Valuation history uses OpenAI’s own announcements where available (October 2024, March 2026) and reputable reporting (Reuters/NYT, Reuters, CNBC via TechCrunch) for tender offers, secondary sales and the October 2026 talks. Each row is labelled confirmed or reported.
• Price-to-sales = valuation ÷ revenue. Public peers use market cap ÷ trailing 12-month revenue from StockAnalysis on 23 October 2026 (Microsoft $3,900B ÷ $331.84B = 11.8x; Nvidia $5,110B ÷ $302.97B = 16.9x; Alphabet $3,940B ÷ $445.87B = 8.8x; Meta $1,650B ÷ $241.61B = 6.8x; four-company average 11.1x). OpenAI: $1,250B ÷ $50B = 25.0x; $1,250B ÷ $13.07B = 95.6x. Anthropic: $965B ÷ $47B = 20.5x.
• Growth comparison: valuation $1,250B ÷ $157B (Oct 2024) = 8.0x; run-rate revenue $50B ÷ $6B (2024) = 8.3x. Since early 2023: $1,250B ÷ $29B = 43.1x.
• Compute burden: $600B reported compute spend through 2030 ÷ $50B run rate = 12.0; ÷ 5 years = $120B a year (2.4x run rate); ÷ $13.07B 2025 revenue = 45.9. Altman’s $1.4T ÷ $20B = 70.
• Loss ratio: $38.5B net loss ÷ $13.07B revenue = $2.95 per $1. 2024 revenue estimate: $4.3B (H1 2025) ÷ 1.16 = $3.7B.
• Microsoft exposure: 27% × $1,250B = $337.5B (8.7% of $3.90T). Illustrative dilution: 27% × (1 − $122B ÷ $852B) = 23.1%; 23.1% × $1,250B = $289B (7.4%). The true current stake is not public.

Limitations

OpenAI is private and has not published full audited financials, so revenue, loss and ownership figures rely on its own selective disclosures and on reporting of documents we cannot see. The $1.25 trillion valuation, $30 billion size and 2027 IPO timing are reports, not confirmed facts. Run-rate revenue is not the same as booked revenue, and comparing private valuations with public market caps is imperfect. Microsoft’s current stake is unknown after later funding rounds. Market caps move daily; figures are from 23 October 2026. This article is not financial or investment advice.

Spotted an error? See our corrections policy. Read how we work in our methodology and editorial standards.

Sources

1. OpenAI
   Accelerating the next phase of AI$122B committed capital, $852B post-money; $2B/month revenue; 900M+ weekly users; 50M+ subscribers (31 Mar 2026)
2. OpenAI
   OpenAI submits confidential S-1Confidential S-1 submitted; timing undecided (8 Jun 2026)
3. OpenAI
   Our structureFoundation control, 26% stake (~$130B) plus warrant; Microsoft ~27%; others 47%
4. OpenAI
   A business that scales with the value of intelligence (Sarah Friar)ARR $2B (2023), $6B (2024), $20B+ (2025); compute 0.2, 0.6, ~1.9 GW (18 Jan 2026)
5. OpenAI
   New funding to scale the benefits of AI$6.6B at $157B post-money; 250M+ weekly users (2 Oct 2024)
6. OpenAI
   Five new Stargate sites~7 GW planned, $400B+ over three years, $500B/10 GW commitment; Oracle 4.5 GW, $300B+
7. OpenAI
   AMD and OpenAI strategic partnership6 GW; warrant up to 160M AMD shares (6 Oct 2025)
8. NVIDIA
   OpenAI and NVIDIA announce strategic partnership to deploy 10 gigawatts10 GW; up to $100B investment (22 Sep 2025)
9. TechCrunch (citing CNBC, Bloomberg)
   OpenAI working on new $30B raise at $1.25T valuation ahead of IPOReported $1.25T pre-money; earlier $1.4T report; Anthropic $965B (22 Oct 2026)
10. Yahoo Finance (citing FT, CNBC)
    OpenAI corrects annualized revenue figure to $50 billion~$50B run rate; $68B prior figure; $13.07B 2025 revenue; $38.5B 2025 loss; 2027 IPO target (8 Oct 2026)
11. Quartz
    OpenAI leaked financials: losses, revenue and IPO$38.5B 2025 net loss; $34B spending vs $13B revenue; FT-verified
12. Reuters via Yahoo Finance
    OpenAI expects compute spend of around $600 billion through 2030$600B through 2030; $280B+ 2030 revenue projection; $1.4T prior (20 Feb 2026)
13. Reuters via BNN Bloomberg
    OpenAI hits $500 billion valuation after share sale$500B; ~$6.6B share sale; prior $300B and $40B round; H1 2025 revenue $4.3B
14. Reuters via Inquirer
    OpenAI valued at $80B after deal, NYT reports$80B+ tender (Feb 2024); ~$29B tender (early 2023)
15. TechCrunch
    ChatGPT reaches 900M weekly active users900M weekly users, 50M subscribers (Feb 2026); 800M (Oct 2025)
16. Crypto Briefing
    ChatGPT reaches 1 billion weekly users as OpenAI eyes IPOOver 1B weekly users, mid-August 2026 snapshot (reported)
17. Gulf News
    Microsoft holds 27% of OpenAI in revamped partnershipMicrosoft ~27%, ~$135B; $250B Azure commitment; IP rights through 2032
18. Orrick
    Anthropic raises $65B Series H at $965B post-money valuationAnthropic $65B at $965B post-money (29 May 2026)
19. Simon Willison (quoting Anthropic)
    Anthropic’s run-rate revenue hits $47 billionRun rate crossed $47B in early May 2026
20. StockAnalysis
    Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla, Oracle, Berkshire Hathaway stock pagesMarket caps and TTM revenue, 23 Oct 2026