Canada's 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan: Is the Door Closing?
As of 23 October 2026, Canada has not yet tabled its 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan; it is due by 1 November. The current plan pencils in a notional 380,000 permanent residents and 370,000 new temporary residents for 2027. The door is not closing for permanent residents, but temporary entry has been cut hard: 2026's temporary arrival target is 43% below 2025's. The minister has signalled levels may rise.
The short answer: the temporary door narrowed, the PR door did not
Canada has cut new temporary resident arrivals by more than 40% in two years, but permanent resident targets are only modestly lower and may now rise. The 2026–2028 plan holds PR admissions flat at 380,000 a year. The real squeeze is on students and temporary workers, and on people already in Canada competing for a limited number of PR spots.
Under section 94 of the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act, the government must table its next levels plan by 1 November 2026 (or within 30 sitting days if Parliament is not sitting). As of 23 October 2026, the 2027–2029 plan has not been released. Immigration Minister Lena Diab said on 16 October that it is coming 'in November as it's scheduled'.
Until it lands, the best guide is the 2026–2028 plan published on 4 November 2025. It sets 380,000 permanent residents (PRs) for each of 2026, 2027 and 2028, with the 2027 and 2028 numbers labelled notional: IRCC says they will be confirmed or adjusted each year. New temporary resident arrivals are planned at 385,000 in 2026 and a notional 370,000 in 2027 and 2028.
Compare that with what came before. The 2024–2026 plan, published in November 2023, pencilled in 500,000 PRs for 2026. The 2025–2027 plan planned 673,650 temporary arrivals for 2025. So the PR target for 2026 ended up 24% below what was once planned, while temporary arrivals were cut 43% in a single year.
Has the 2027–2029 immigration levels plan been released?
No. As of 23 October 2026, IRCC had not tabled the 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan; it is legally due on or before 1 November 2026. IRCC ran a public consultation from 12 May to 30 June 2026, and the minister has said the plan will arrive in November as scheduled. Every 2027 number below is a notional target from last year's plan.
IRCC's consultation page for the 2027–2029 plan, now archived, says the plan 'will be tabled this fall' and repeats two goals from the current plan: reduce the temporary population to less than 5% of Canada's population by the end of 2027, and keep PR admissions below 1% of the population after 2027.
The political signals have shifted since then. On 16 October, Diab told reporters 'We've taken a step backwards on immigration' and 'We have an ambitious agenda', pointing to slow population growth, according to CP24. She gave no numbers. The C.D. Howe Institute, by contrast, has recommended PR admissions of 380,000 in 2027, 350,000 in 2028 and 340,000 in 2029.
What are Canada's PR targets for 2027 by category?
The notional 2027 target is 380,000 permanent residents: 244,700 economic, 81,000 family, 49,300 refugees and protected persons, and 5,000 humanitarian and other. Compared with 2026, economic immigration rises by 4,900, while family (down 3,000) and humanitarian and other (down 1,900) shrink. Spouses and partners drop from 69,000 to 66,000.
| Category | 2026 target | 2027 (notional) | 2028 (notional) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Economic | 239,800 | 244,700 | 244,700 |
| · Federal High Skilled (Express Entry) | 109,000 | 111,000 | 111,000 |
| · Provincial Nominee Program | 91,500 | 92,500 | 92,500 |
| Family | 84,000 | 81,000 | 81,000 |
| · Spouses, partners and children | 69,000 | 66,000 | 66,000 |
| · Parents and grandparents | 15,000 | 15,000 | 15,000 |
| Refugees and protected persons | 49,300 | 49,300 | 49,300 |
| Humanitarian, compassionate and other | 6,900 | 5,000 | 5,000 |
| Total (range) | 380,000 (350,000–420,000) | 380,000 (350,000–420,000) | 380,000 (350,000–420,000) |
On top of the 380,000, the plan includes two one-time initiatives: about 115,000 protected persons already in Canada would get PR over two years, and up to 33,000 temporary workers would transition to PR in 2026 and 2027. These are counted outside the regular targets, which is why total 2026 PR landings can exceed 380,000.
French-speaking admissions outside Quebec are set to climb from 9% (30,267) in 2026 to 9.5% (31,825) in 2027 and 10.5% (35,175) in 2028, toward a 12% goal by 2029. That steady rise is one reason French-language Express Entry draws have been so large.
Is Canada actually hitting its permanent resident targets?
Canada roughly met or beat its PR targets from 2023 to 2025, but 2026 is running behind: 216,600 regular admissions from January to August, 57% of the 380,000 target. To reach 380,000, IRCC would need about 40,850 a month from September to December, a level not reached in any month of 2026 so far.
Permanent residents admitted, 2023–2026
Source: IRCC 2025 Annual Report to Parliament; IRCC CIMM briefing (2025, about 393,500); IRCC data via Moving2Canada (2026)View the data
| Label | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023 | 471,808 |
| 2024 | 483,640 |
| 2025 | 393,500 |
| 2026 (Jan–Aug) | 216,600 |
| Year | Target | Admitted | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 465,000 | 471,808 | +6,808 |
| 2024 | 485,000 | 483,640 | -1,360 |
| 2025 | 395,000 | about 393,500 | about -1,500 |
| 2026 | 380,000 | 216,600 (Jan–Aug) | Projected about 324,900 at current pace |
The 2026 shortfall is broad-based. Through August, economic admissions were at about 53% of their 239,800 target and refugees at about 52%, while family (about 70%) and humanitarian (about 71%) were ahead of pace, according to Moving2Canada's tally of IRCC figures. Regular admissions were 21.8% below the same period of 2025.
Including the one-time initiatives (15,100 workers and 31,300 protected persons through August), total landings were about 263,000. That matters for the next plan: if IRCC undershoots 2026, it has less reason to cut the 2027 headline number and more room to keep it at 380,000 or raise it without a big operational jump.
How much has Canada cut temporary residents and study permits?
New temporary resident arrivals were planned at 673,650 for 2025, cut to 385,000 for 2026 (-43%) and a notional 370,000 for 2027 (-4% more). The student arrival target fell from 305,900 to 155,000 and then a notional 150,000, a 51% cut over two plans. IRCC says actual student arrivals already fell 61% in 2025.
New temporary resident arrival targets, 2025–2028
Source: IRCC 2025–2027 Levels Plan (QP note); IRCC 2026–2028 Levels Plan supplementary informationView the data
| Label | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 673,650 |
| 2026 | 385,000 |
| 2027 (notional) | 370,000 |
| 2028 (notional) | 370,000 |
- Students Arrival target 305,900 (2025) to 155,000 (2026) to 150,000 notional (2027). KalQLater calc: -51% from 2025 to 2027.
- Workers Arrival target 367,750 (2025) to 230,000 (2026) to 220,000 notional (2027), a 40% cut. The employer-driven TFWP stream falls from 60,000 to 50,000 in 2027; the International Mobility Program stays at 170,000.
- Actual 2025 arrivals IRCC told MPs that new worker and student arrivals fell 53% (361,935) in 2025 versus 2024: students down 61% (177,595) and workers down 47% (184,340).
The study permit cap reinforces this. IRCC's notice of 25 November 2025 says it expects to issue up to 408,000 study permits in 2026: 155,000 for new students and 253,000 extensions. That is 7% below the 2025 issuance target of 437,000 and 16% below 2024's 485,000. From 1 January 2026, master's and doctoral students at public institutions no longer need a provincial attestation letter, with 49,000 permits targeted for them.
Why is Canada's population growth slowing, and could targets rise?
Canada's population grew just 0.5% (189,425 people) from July 2025 to July 2026, down from 2.85% two years earlier. The population actually shrank by about 7,000 in late 2025. That collapse in growth is why the government is now talking about a 'controlled increase', which would most likely show up in PR targets rather than temporary ones.
Canada population growth, 12 months to 1 July
Source: KalQLater calc from Statistics Canada population estimates (via Moving2Canada tracker and The Daily, 23 Sep 2026)View the data
| Label | Value |
|---|---|
| 2022 | 1.26% |
| 2023 | 2.77% |
| 2024 | 2.85% |
| 2025 | 1.08% |
| 2026 | 0.46% |
The quarterly path shows how sharp the brake was: population fell by just over 7,000 in the fourth quarter of 2025, rose about 1,300 in the first quarter of 2026, then grew about 80,000 in the second quarter as PR landings picked up. International migration accounted for about 84% of second-quarter growth.
Prime Minister Mark Carney said on 27 September 2026 that the government was weighing a 'controlled increase' in population, according to GoFar Global, and Diab followed with 'we do need people'. Both stopped short of numbers. Because the temporary-resident goal still stands, the more likely lever is the PR range (350,000–420,000), not the temporary arrivals cap.
How big is 380,000 immigrants relative to Canada's population?
380,000 PRs is about 9.1 per 1,000 residents (0.91%), already under the government's 1% ceiling. That compares with about 11.7 per 1,000 actually admitted in 2024 and 9.5 in 2025. At 2026's current pace (about 324,900), the rate would fall to roughly 7.8 per 1,000, the lowest in this series.
- 2023 actual 471,808 / 40,022,704 = 11.8 per 1,000
- 2024 actual 483,640 / 41,162,593 = 11.7 per 1,000
- 2025 actual about 393,500 / 41,608,982 = 9.5 per 1,000
- 2026 target 380,000 / 41,798,407 = 9.1 per 1,000
- 2026 at current pace about 324,900 / 41,798,407 = 7.8 per 1,000
The 1% rule gives the government room. With a population near 41.8 million, 1% is about 418,000, almost exactly the top of the current 420,000 range. So a 'controlled increase' could lift PR targets by tens of thousands and still honour the stated ceiling. IRCC told MPs in 2026 that PR admissions are projected at about 0.9% of population in 2028.
What do 2026 Express Entry draws tell us about 2027?
French-language and in-Canada candidates dominate: of about 143,467 invitations in 2026 through 16 October, roughly 40% went to Canadian Experience Class draws and 39% to French-language draws. French cut-offs (382–435) sit about 80–130 points below CEC cut-offs (507–523). Healthcare draws issued 11,500 invitations at cut-offs of 467–475.
| Draw type | Latest round | Invitations | Lowest CRS invited | 2026 total invitations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| French-language proficiency | 16 Oct 2026 | 5,000 | 435 | 55,500 (11 draws) |
| Canadian Experience Class | 15 Oct 2026 | 2,500 | 519 | 57,750 (18 draws) |
| Provincial Nominee Program | 13 Oct 2026 | 752 | 772 | 10,021 (20 draws) |
| Trades occupations | 1 Oct 2026 | 3,500 | 476 | 6,500 (2 draws) |
| Healthcare and social services | 4 Sep 2026 | 3,500 | 475 | 11,500 (3 draws) |
| Physicians with Canadian experience | 3 Sep 2026 | 229 | 198 | 891 (3 draws) |
Federal High Skilled admissions (mostly Express Entry) have a 2026 target of 109,000 and a notional 111,000 in 2027, so the pace of invitations should stay broadly similar unless the new plan changes that line. PNP-only rounds in 2026 had cut-offs between 697 and 805, because those candidates already hold a provincial nomination.
What does the plan mean for students, workers and families?
International students face the tightest squeeze: a 155,000 new-arrival target in 2026 and a notional 150,000 in 2027. Temporary workers have fewer new permits but a one-time PR pathway. Families face a notional cut in spousal sponsorship from 69,000 to 66,000, with parents and grandparents flat at 15,000.
- New-arrival target 155,000 in 2026, notional 150,000 in 2027, versus 305,900 planned for 2025.
- Up to 408,000 permits in 2026 including extensions; master's and PhD students at public institutions are exempt from the attestation letter.
- A degree no longer guarantees a path to PR: CEC cut-offs above 500 mean most graduates need French, a category, or a provincial nomination.
- Worker arrival target 230,000 in 2026 and notional 220,000 in 2027; TFWP drops to 50,000 in 2027.
- Up to 33,000 workers can transition to PR in 2026–2027 under the one-time initiative; 15,100 had done so by August 2026.
- About 48% of 2025's new PRs already held permits in Canada, so in-Canada status is an advantage.
- Spouses, partners and children: 69,000 in 2026, notional 66,000 in 2027.
- Parents and grandparents: 15,000 a year through 2028.
- Family admissions were ahead of pace in 2026 (about 70% of target by August), so processing may slow late in the year.
What should you do before and after 1 November?
Do not change plans based on rumours: wait for IRCC's official tables, then check the line for your program. Meanwhile, the levers that worked in 2026 are French ability, healthcare or trades experience, Canadian work experience and provincial nomination.
- 1Check the official plan on or after 1 November
Read IRCC's supplementary information page for the 2027–2029 plan, not social media summaries. Look at your specific line (Federal High Skilled, PNP, spouses, students), not just the 380,000 headline.
- 2Build French if you can
French draws issued 55,500 invitations in 2026 at cut-offs as low as 382. The francophone target rises to 10.5% in 2028. Even intermediate French adds CRS points and opens category draws.
- 3Document healthcare, trades or other category experience
Healthcare draws (cut-offs 467–475) and trades draws (476–477) have run well below CEC levels. Make sure your occupation code and hours are documented exactly.
- 4Look at provincial nominee streams
The PNP target is 91,500 in 2026 and a notional 92,500 in 2027. Nominated Express Entry candidates were invited at cut-offs of 697–805 in 2026, far above other draws, because a nomination lifts scores sharply.
- 5Students: confirm cap rules before applying
Check whether you need a provincial attestation letter, and plan for a PR route that does not depend only on graduating.
- 6Get qualified advice for your case
Use a licensed immigration consultant (CICC) or lawyer for decisions about your file. This article is general information, not immigration advice.
What to watch in the 2027–2029 plan
- The 2027 PR headline Kept at 380,000, cut toward C.D. Howe's 350,000 for 2028, or raised under the 'controlled increase' signal? Anything up to about 418,000 stays under the 1% ceiling.
- Temporary arrivals Whether 370,000 holds, and whether the student line stays at 150,000.
- The 5% deadline Whether 'end of 2027' is kept, pushed back, or redefined, given the roughly 690,000 gap.
- One-time initiatives Whether the protected-persons and in-Canada worker transitions are extended into 2027 and 2028.
- Economic share IRCC aims for nearly 65% of new PRs to support labour-market needs by 2027; watch Federal High Skilled versus PNP.
For the wider economic backdrop, see our analysis of Canada's September job losses and the Bank of Canada's October rate decision.
Claims vs evidence
“Canada is closing the door to immigrants.”
PR target is 380,000 for 2026 with 380,000 notional for 2027, still about 0.9% of population. Temporary arrival targets were cut 43% for 2026.
Partly true“The 2027–2029 levels plan has already been announced.”
As of 23 October 2026 it had not been tabled; the minister said it is coming in November, by the 1 November deadline.
False“Canada will cut PR targets again in 2027.”
The 2027 target is notional at 380,000. The minister has hinted at increases; C.D. Howe argues for cuts from 2028. Nothing is confirmed.
Too early“Temporary residents will be under 5% of the population by end-2027.”
They were 6.65% on 1 July 2026; reaching 5% needs a fall of about 690,000 in six quarters versus about 20,000 in Q2 2026.
Misleading“Canada is missing its immigration targets.”
Targets were roughly met or exceeded in 2023–2025, but 2026 regular PR admissions were at 57% of target after eight months.
Partly true“French speakers have a big Express Entry advantage.”
French draws took 38.7% of 2026 invitations, with cut-offs 80–130 points below CEC draws.
TrueFrequently asked questions
When will the 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan be released?
It must be tabled in Parliament on or before 1 November 2026 under section 94 of the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act. As of 23 October 2026 it had not been released, and Immigration Minister Lena Diab said it would come 'in November as it's scheduled'.
How many immigrants will Canada accept in 2027?
The current notional target is 380,000 permanent residents in 2027, within a range of 350,000 to 420,000, set in the 2026–2028 plan. It also pencils in 370,000 new temporary resident arrivals. Both numbers can be changed when the 2027–2029 plan is tabled.
Is Canada reducing immigration in 2026?
Yes for temporary residents: the 2026 arrival target is 385,000, down from 673,650 planned for 2025. The PR target fell more modestly, from 395,000 in 2025 to 380,000 in 2026. Actual regular PR admissions were 216,600 from January to August 2026.
What is Canada's study permit cap for 2026?
IRCC expects to issue up to 408,000 study permits in 2026: 155,000 for new students and 253,000 extensions. That is 7% below 2025's 437,000 target and 16% below 2024's 485,000. Master's and PhD students at public institutions no longer need a provincial attestation letter.
What percentage of Canada's population are temporary residents?
Statistics Canada counted 2,779,774 non-permanent residents on 1 July 2026, about 6.65% of the 41,798,407 population. The government's goal is to bring that below 5% by the end of 2027.
Will Express Entry draws continue in 2027?
Yes. Express Entry feeds the Federal High Skilled line, which has a notional 2027 target of 111,000, up from 109,000 in 2026. In 2026, about 143,467 invitations were issued through 16 October, with French-language and Canadian Experience Class draws making up about 79%.
Are spousal sponsorship numbers going down?
Slightly, on paper. The spouses, partners and children target is 69,000 in 2026 and a notional 66,000 in 2027 and 2028. Parents and grandparents stay at 15,000 a year. The new plan could still change the 2027 figure.
How we built this analysis
- Plan targets come from IRCC's official supplementary information pages for the 2024–2026, 2025–2027 and 2026–2028 levels plans; 2027 and 2028 figures are labelled notional as IRCC does.
- PR admissions: 2023 and 2024 from IRCC's 2025 Annual Report to Parliament, 2025 (about 393,500) from an IRCC committee briefing, and Jan–Aug 2026 (216,600 regular, excluding one-time initiatives) from Moving2Canada's compilation of IRCC monthly data.
- Non-permanent resident share = NPRs / total population on 1 July each year, using Statistics Canada estimates as compiled by Moving2Canada; the 2026 figures (2,779,774 and 41,798,407) were checked against StatCan's The Daily. Gap to 5% = 2,779,774 - (0.05 × 41,798,407) = 689,854, divided by six quarters = about 115,000 per quarter.
- PR per 1,000 = admissions (or target) / 1 July population × 1,000. Example: 380,000 / 41,798,407 × 1,000 = 9.09. Population growth = change in 1 July population estimate, year over year.
- Temporary arrival change: (385,000 - 673,650) / 673,650 = -42.8%; (370,000 - 385,000) / 385,000 = -3.9%; students (150,000 - 305,900) / 305,900 = -51.0%.
- Express Entry shares divide 2026 category invitation totals (compiled by Moving2Canada from IRCC round data, through draw #450 on 16 October 2026) by the 143,467 total; latest-round figures were checked against IRCC's rounds data.
Limitations
The 2027–2029 plan had not been published as of 23 October 2026, so all 2027 and 2028 figures are notional and may change. Population and NPR estimates are preliminary and were revised in September 2026; the 2026 Census (10 February 2027) may revise them again. IRCC's 2026 monthly figures are rounded and the 2026 total is partial-year. Some figures (2026 admissions, Express Entry category totals) are third-party compilations of IRCC data that we could not download directly. This article is general information, not immigration or legal advice; consult a licensed immigration consultant or lawyer about your situation.
Spotted an error? See our corrections policy. Read how we work in our methodology and editorial standards.
Sources
- Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship CanadaSupplementary Information for the 2026–2028 Immigration Levels PlanPR and temporary targets 2026–2028, one-time initiatives, 5% goal
- Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada2026 consultations on immigration levelsConsultation dates; 5% and 1% goals
- Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship CanadaCIMM – Immigration Levels Plan – May 4, 20262025 PR admissions (~393,500), 2025 arrival declines, PR share projection
- Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship CanadaQuestion Period Note: Immigration Levels Plan 2025–20272025–2027 PR and temporary arrival targets
- Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship CanadaNotice – Supplementary Information for the 2024–2026 Immigration Levels Plan2024 target 485,000; 500,000 notional for 2026
- Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship CanadaCIMM – Immigration Levels Plan for 2023–20252023 target 465,000
- Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada2025 Annual Report to Parliament on Immigration2023 and 2024 PR admissions; 2024 study and work permits
- GoFar GlobalCanada Immigration Levels Plan 2027-2029: What to Expect Before November 1Section 94 deadline; Carney 27 Sep 2026 comment (news, 8 Oct 2026)
- Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada2026 provincial and territorial allocations under the international student cap408,000 study permits in 2026
- Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship CanadaExpress Entry rounds of invitations (data)2026 rounds, invitations and CRS cut-offs
- Statistics CanadaCanada's population estimates, second quarter 2026 (The Daily, 23 September 2026)Population 41,798,407; NPRs 2,779,774
- Moving2CanadaCanada Temporary Resident Population Tracker: Q2 2026 UpdateQuarterly StatCan NPR and population series, 2021–2026
- Moving2CanadaPR Admissions to Canada Drop 15 Percent in August 2026Compilation of IRCC monthly PR admissions, Jan–Aug 2026
- Moving2CanadaExpress Entry Latest Draw2026 Express Entry category totals
- CP24 / The Canadian Press'We do need people': Immigration minister teases immigration levels will be going upMinister's 16 Oct 2026 comments; C.D. Howe recommendation; 0.5% growth