Are Canadians Really Avoiding the US? What the Travel Data Shows
Yes, mostly: Canadian-resident return trips from the US were still 24.6% to 28.0% below 2024 levels in every month from January to July 2026, according to Statistics Canada. Travel is now growing again from a very low base. In September 2026 air trips rose 11.6% year on year, but they were still 18.7% below September 2024, and car trips were 31.1% below.
The short answer: the boycott has softened, but the hole is still a quarter deep
Canadians are still taking roughly one in four fewer trips to the US than in 2024, but the decline stopped getting worse in spring 2026. Year-on-year numbers have been positive for six straight months, which is why some headlines say travel is 'surging'. Measured against the pre-boycott year of 2024, it is not.
The trending search 'air canada cancels flights to us' (100K+ searches in Canada over the past week on Google Trends) mixes two separate stories. One is demand: Canadians cut US trips hard in 2025 and have only partly come back. The other is cost: jet fuel prices that Air Canada says doubled after the Iran conflict made some thin US routes unprofitable, so airlines cut or delayed them.
We checked the official numbers. Statistics Canada counted 29.1 million Canadian-resident return trips from the US in 2025, down 25.4% from 2024 (StatCan, 23 Feb 2026). In 2026, monthly totals have run between 23.2% and 28.0% below the same month of 2024. That gap has barely moved even as the year-on-year figures turned positive.
A previous KalQLater article reported that air trips were up 11.6% year on year but still 18.7% below 2024. We confirmed both figures: they are Statistics Canada's preliminary September 2026 numbers, released on 13 October 2026 and reported by BNN Bloomberg / The Canadian Press. StatCan's own release page was offline when we tried it, so we rely on that report plus the earlier StatCan releases we opened directly.
How many Canadians are travelling to the US each month in 2026?
Between 2.0 and 2.8 million Canadian-resident return trips from the US were counted each month from January to July 2026, versus about 2.7 to 3.8 million in the same months of 2024. Car trips turned positive year on year in April. Air trips only turned positive in July.
| Month 2026 | Car trips | Car y/y | Car vs 2024 | Air trips | Air y/y | Air vs 2024 | All trips vs 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1.3M | -26.3% | -25.9% | 753,400 | -12.8% | -18.1% | -23.2% |
| February | 1.2M | -12.3% | -32.0% | 749,500 | -12.0% | -16.8% | -27.1% |
| March | 1.6M | -3.3% | -33.7% | 934,100 | -10.8% | -15.3% | -28.0% |
| April | 1.5M | +8.1% | -30.2% | 805,900 | -7.1% | -16.9% | -26.7% |
| May | 1.8M | +17.7% | n/a | 703,700 | -3.2% | n/a | -24.6% |
| June | 1.7M | +7.6% | n/a | 546,500 | -1.2% | n/a | -24.6% |
| July | 2.2M | +12.6% | n/a | 567,000 | +0.6% | n/a | -25.6% |
| August (prelim.) | n/a | +9.9% | -27.4% | n/a | +3.6% | -22.7% | n/a |
| September (prelim.) | n/a | +5.6% | -31.1% | n/a | +11.6% | -18.7% | n/a |
All Canadian return trips from the US vs the same month of 2024, Jan–Jul 2026
Source: Statistics Canada, Travel between Canada and other countries, Jan–Jul 2026View the data
| Label | Value |
|---|---|
| Jan | -23.2% |
| Feb | -27.1% |
| Mar | -28.0% |
| Apr | -26.7% |
| May | -24.6% |
| Jun | -24.6% |
| Jul | -25.6% |
The monthly figures come from StatCan's 'Travel between Canada and other countries' releases for January, February, March, April, May, June and July, plus the August leading indicator. StatCan notes that NEXUS highway data were added from August 2026, so comparisons with earlier years need some caution.
Is Canadian travel to the US bouncing back by car or by air?
Road trips recovered first: car trips have grown year on year every month since April 2026, but they remain about 27% to 34% below 2024. Air travel kept falling until June and only jumped in September, when StatCan says a later Labour Day weekend flattered the comparison.
Canadian car trips from the US, change vs same month of 2025
Source: Statistics Canada monthly releases and leading indicators, 2026 (Aug–Sep preliminary)View the data
| Label | Value |
|---|---|
| Jan | -26.3% |
| Feb | -12.3% |
| Mar | -3.3% |
| Apr | 8.1% |
| May | 17.7% |
| Jun | 7.6% |
| Jul | 12.6% |
| Aug | 9.9% |
| Sep | 5.6% |
Canadian air trips from the US, change vs same month of 2025
Source: Statistics Canada monthly releases and leading indicators, 2026 (Aug–Sep preliminary, Sep via CP)View the data
| Label | Value |
|---|---|
| Jan | -12.8% |
| Feb | -12.0% |
| Mar | -10.8% |
| Apr | -7.1% |
| May | -3.2% |
| Jun | -1.2% |
| Jul | 0.6% |
| Aug | 3.6% |
| Sep | 11.6% |
Why the difference? Air travel fell less in 2025 than car travel (many air trips are business, family visits or sunbelt stays that are hard to cancel), so it had less to bounce back from. Air fares also rose sharply in 2026. Air Canada paid 132.7 cents a litre for fuel in the second quarter of 2026, up 50.8% from 88.0 cents a year earlier (Air Canada Q2 2026 results).
Short trips are the core of the car story. In May 2026, 65.5% of Canadian car trips back from the US were same-day trips, and in July the figure was 59.8%. Shopping runs and day trips came back faster than week-long road holidays.
Did Air Canada cancel flights to the US? Every 2026 route cut we could confirm
Air Canada did not cancel US flying wholesale, but it suspended or delayed at least 11 US routes in 2026, and WestJet dropped 16 for summer 2026 plus more for winter. Air Canada blamed doubled jet fuel prices and softer cross-border demand. WestJet blamed demand, and it made its first cut before the fuel spike.
| Airline | Route(s) | Change | Dates | Announced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WestJet | 16 routes incl. Vancouver–Boston, Nashville, San Francisco, Tampa, San Diego; Edmonton–Atlanta, Nashville, San Francisco, Seattle, Orlando; Toronto–Los Angeles; Winnipeg–Nashville, Atlanta; Calgary–Raleigh-Durham; Kelowna–Seattle; Halifax–Orlando | Not operating | Summer 2026 season | 11 Feb 2026 |
| Air Canada | Toronto–New York JFK, Montreal–New York JFK | Suspended; winter return later cancelled | From 1 Jun 2026; no return in winter 2026–27 | 17 Apr 2026; updated 6 Jul 2026 |
| Air Canada | Toronto–Salt Lake City | Temporarily suspended | From 30 Jun 2026, return planned 2027 | Apr 2026 |
| Air Canada | Montreal–Detroit, Montreal–Minneapolis/St Paul, Toronto–Indianapolis | Suspended for winter | Last flights 24 Oct 2026 | 6 Jul 2026 |
| Air Canada | Ottawa–Fort Lauderdale, Quebec City–Orlando, Montreal–Palm Beach | Seasonal launch delayed | October moved to December 2026 | 6 Jul 2026 |
| WestJet | Vancouver–Atlanta, Vancouver–Los Angeles, Calgary–Chicago O'Hare | Suspended for winter (reported) | Late Oct 2026 to late Apr/May 2027 | 8 Jul 2026 |
| WestJet | Vancouver–Fort Lauderdale, Kauai, Orlando; Las Vegas from Toronto, Regina, Saskatoon | Removed from future schedules (reported) | Winter 2026–27 | 8 Jul 2026 |
WestJet said in February that it saw 'a notable decline in transborder travel demand throughout 2025' and cut full-year transborder flying by close to 10%, and by 15% in peak US travel periods, moving aircraft to domestic, Latin American, Caribbean and transatlantic routes (Travelweek). Air Canada's April JFK suspension was explicitly about fuel: 'jet fuel prices have doubled since the start of the Iran conflict' (Daily Hive).
Air Canada is also adding US capacity in places. It plans up to five daily flights between Toronto Billy Bishop and New York LaGuardia this winter (PAX News). On its August earnings call, chief commercial officer Mark Galardo described Canada–US demand as 'roughly flat year over year', with premium corporate demand still growing (Nasdaq).
Why are Canadians avoiding the US: politics, the dollar or fuel?
Politics comes first in the surveys: 67% of Canadians less likely to visit the US in 2026 cited the political climate, and 61% cited tariffs, in a Leger survey of 1,583 adults in March 2026. Only 39% cited the exchange rate. Fuel matters more for airline schedules than for travellers' stated reasons.
- Politics and tariffs (survey) In Leger's March 2026 survey, among those less likely to travel to the US, 67% cited the political climate, 61% tariffs and trade tensions, 59% said they no longer feel safe and 48% said they do not feel welcome. Only 14% of spring leisure travellers planned a US trip, down from 21% in both 2024 and 2025 (Leger). A separate Nanos survey for CTV, published 13 March 2026, found 43% of Canadians less likely to travel to the US in 2026 (CTV News).
- A weaker loonie The Bank of Canada's annual average was US$0.7300 per Canadian dollar in 2024 and US$0.7154 in 2025 (Bank of Canada). On 2 October 2026 it was about US$0.7019 (exchange-rates.org), about 3.8% weaker than the 2024 average. That makes US hotels and meals dearer, but it is a modest move compared with a 25% drop in trips.
- Fuel and fares Air Canada's fuel bill rose to C$1.713 billion in Q2 2026 from C$1.148 billion a year earlier. Airlines cut thin, price-sensitive US leisure routes first. That reduces choice for travellers in smaller cities, which can itself suppress trips.
- Border and paperwork worries The US finalized a registration rule for visitors staying 30 days or more, effective 29 June 2026 (money.ca). It mainly affects snowbirds, but it adds to the 'not welcome' feeling captured in surveys.
Where are Canadians travelling instead of the US?
Mostly overseas and at home: Canadian overseas trips rose 9.2% to 14.2 million in 2025, a record 14.9% above 2019, while domestic travel spending rose 8.7% to C$81.3 billion. Europe and Asia gained the most visits. Mexico also grew, with Canadian air arrivals up 11% in 2025 and 7.6% in the first half of 2026.
Change in Canadian travel by destination, 2025 vs 2024
Source: Statistics Canada National Travel Survey (Year in review, 22 Jul 2026); Mexico: Sectur via PublimetroView the data
| Label | Value |
|---|---|
| Asia visits | 16.7% |
| Europe visits | 13.6% |
| Mexico air arrivals | 11.0% |
| All overseas visits | 10.2% |
| Domestic visits | 1.5% |
| US visits (friends/family) | -9.0% |
| US leisure visits | -21.5% |
| All US visits | -23.5% |
StatCan's year-in-review analysis shows money following the trips. Canadians' overseas leisure spending rose C$3.6 billion to C$22.8 billion in 2025, while US leisure spending fell C$2.2 billion to C$12.1 billion. Domestic trips made up more than 90% of all Canadian-resident visits.
For Mexico, Mexico's tourism ministry counted 2.8 million Canadian air arrivals in 2025, up 11%, and 1.831 million from January to June 2026, up 7.6% (Publimetro, citing Sectur). Airlines are following that demand. Air Canada's winter 2026–27 schedule adds Calgary–Cancun (from 11 December) and Calgary–Puerto Vallarta (from 10 December), plus Quito from Montreal and Toronto in early December (AOL).
How much money is the US losing from Canadians staying away?
Our estimate is roughly C$3.3 billion to C$3.8 billion (about US$2.4 billion to US$2.7 billion) in spending Canadians did not make in the US from January to July 2026, compared with the 2024 pace. This is a KalQLater estimate, not an official figure. The confirmed official number is for 2025: Canadian spending in the US fell C$3.3 billion to C$18.8 billion.
| Step | Figure | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Canadian return trips from the US, Jan–Jul 2026 | 16.8 million | Sum of StatCan monthly totals (2.1 + 2.0 + 2.6 + 2.4 + 2.6 + 2.3 + 2.8) |
| Implied trips in the same months of 2024 | 22.63 million | Each month divided by (1 + its % change vs 2024) |
| Missing trips | 5.83 million | 22.63M minus 16.8M |
| Spending per trip, 2025 | C$646 | C$18.8B ÷ 29.1M trips (StatCan) |
| Spending per trip, 2024 | C$567 | C$22.1B ÷ 39M trips (StatCan) |
| Estimated missing spending (high) | C$3.76 billion (≈US$2.69B) | 5.83M × C$646; converted at 2025 average US$0.7154 |
| Estimated missing spending (low) | C$3.30 billion (≈US$2.36B) | 5.83M × C$567 |
For scale, the US Travel Association said Canadians made 20.4 million visits to the US in 2024 and spent US$20.5 billion, supporting 140,000 American jobs. It warned that just a 10% drop would cost US$2.1 billion and 14,000 jobs. The actual 2025 drop in trips was about two and a half times that size.
Is the Canadian travel boycott ending?
Not yet in the data: six months of year-on-year growth have not closed a gap of about 25% against 2024. Growth is coming mainly from short car trips and, in September, a calendar quirk. Airlines are still trimming US leisure routes for winter 2026–27 while adding sun destinations elsewhere.
Signs of thaw: car trips have grown every month since April, US air trips turned positive in July, and Air Canada says it is cautiously restarting US marketing. Air Canada also told investors Canada–US demand is roughly flat, which is better than the double-digit declines of 2025.
Signs it is sticking: September car trips were still 31.1% below 2024, worse than the 27.4% gap in August. WestJet said in February it saw 'no indication that this trend will change in the foreseeable future'. And surveys in spring 2026 showed US interest falling further, not recovering, with 34% of Leger respondents 'not interested in US destinations', up 10 points from summer 2025.
Full September data from StatCan, with counts, are due on 23 November 2026. The winter months matter most: in January 2026 Canadian trips from the US were still down 22.0% from January 2025, as snowbird travel weakened.
Snowbird rules for 2026: what to check before you cross the border
If you will stay in the US for 30 days or more, make sure you are registered under the rule that took effect on 29 June 2026, track your days for the IRS 183-day test and check your province’s health-coverage limit. Then confirm your flights, since several Florida routes now start in December.
- 1Check your I-94 after you arrive
If you fly in, you usually get an electronic I-94 record automatically, which counts as registration. If you drive, you usually do not. Check CBP's I-94 website after entry.
- 2File Form G-325R if needed
If you have no I-94 and will stay 30+ days, file Form G-325R online with USCIS after entering and before day 30. There is no fee and Canadians using this route do not need fingerprints. A NEXUS or Global Entry card counts only if you used it at a trusted-traveller lane or kiosk on your latest entry. Adults 18+ must carry proof of registration.
- 3Count your days for the IRS
The substantial presence test counts all days this year, one-third of last year's and one-sixth of the year before's; 183 weighted days triggers it. If you were in the US fewer than 183 days this year and keep closer ties to Canada, file Form 8840, generally by 15 June.
- 4Know your provincial limit
Limits vary by province. Ontario, for example, lets eligible residents be away up to 212 days in a 12-month period and keep OHIP. Provincial plans pay little for US care, so buy travel medical insurance.
- 5Re-check your route
Air Canada moved Ottawa–Fort Lauderdale, Quebec City–Orlando and Montreal–Palm Beach launches from October to December 2026. If your route was cut, look for connections through hubs or US partner airlines before rebooking at short notice.
Claims vs evidence: Canadians and US travel
“Canadians are still avoiding the US”
Every month from January to July 2026 was 23.2% to 28.0% below the same month of 2024 (StatCan).
True“Cross-border travel 'surged' in September 2026”
Air trips rose 11.6% and car trips 5.6% vs 2025, but were 18.7% and 31.1% below 2024. StatCan cites a Labour Day calendar effect.
Misleading“Air Canada saw 25% of Canadian traffic to the US drop off”
Quote is paywalled on CAPA, but StatCan's 2025 total decline of 25.4% matches it.
True“Air Canada cancels flights to the US”
It suspended or delayed at least 11 US routes in 2026, mainly citing fuel, but added Billy Bishop–LaGuardia frequencies and says Canada–US demand is flat.
Partly true“High fuel costs, not politics, are behind the cuts”
Fuel drove Air Canada's April and July cuts, but WestJet cut 16 routes in February citing 2025 demand, and 67% of reluctant travellers cite politics (Leger survey).
Partly true“Canadians are going to Mexico instead”
Mexican air arrivals from Canada rose 11% in 2025 and 7.6% in H1 2026, but overseas visits to Europe (+13.6%) and Asia (+16.7%) grew faster.
Partly trueFrequently asked questions
Are Canadians still boycotting travel to the US in 2026?
Largely, yes. Statistics Canada data show Canadian-resident return trips from the US were 23.2% to 28.0% below 2024 levels in every month from January to July 2026. Trips have grown year on year since April, but only from the very low base set during the 2025 boycott.
How much did Canadian travel to the US drop in 2025?
Canadian-resident return trips from the US fell 25.4% to 29.1 million in 2025, according to Statistics Canada. Canadian travel spending in the US fell C$3.3 billion to C$18.8 billion, while overseas trips rose 9.2% to a record 14.2 million.
Why did Air Canada cancel flights to the US?
Air Canada said jet fuel prices doubled after the Iran conflict, making lower-profit routes unviable, and cited softer cross-border demand. It suspended Toronto and Montreal to New York JFK from 1 June 2026, dropped three Midwest routes for winter from 24 October, and delayed three Florida launches to December.
Which WestJet US routes were suspended in 2026?
WestJet suspended 16 transborder routes for summer 2026, including Vancouver to Boston, Nashville, San Francisco, Tampa and San Diego, and Toronto to Los Angeles. In July it reportedly cut more for winter, including Vancouver to Atlanta and Los Angeles and Calgary to Chicago.
Is Canadian air travel to the US recovering?
Slowly. Air trips were down 12.8% year on year in January 2026, turned positive (+0.6%) in July and rose 11.6% in preliminary September data. But September air trips were still 18.7% below September 2024, and part of that jump came from Labour Day falling later.
Where are Canadians travelling instead of the US?
Mainly overseas and within Canada. In 2025 Canadian visits to Europe rose 13.6% and to Asia 16.7%, domestic travel spending rose 8.7% to C$81.3 billion, and Canadian air arrivals in Mexico rose 11% to 2.8 million, according to StatCan and Mexico's tourism ministry.
Do Canadian snowbirds have to register in the US in 2026?
Yes, if staying 30 days or more. A finalized rule took effect on 29 June 2026. Air travellers usually get an I-94 record that counts; drivers without one should file Form G-325R online before day 30. There is no fee, and adults must carry proof.
How much money is the US losing from fewer Canadian visitors?
Officially, Canadians spent C$3.3 billion less in the US in 2025 (C$18.8 billion total). KalQLater estimates a further C$3.3 billion to C$3.8 billion was not spent from January to July 2026 compared with 2024 trip levels. That is an estimate, not an official figure.
How we built this analysis
- Trip counts are Statistics Canada counts of Canadian-resident return trips from the US by automobile and commercial air, from the monthly 'Travel between Canada and other countries' releases (Jan–Jul 2026) and 'Leading indicator of international arrivals' releases (Aug–Sep 2026, preliminary). September figures were taken from The Canadian Press report of the 13 October 2026 release because StatCan's page could not be loaded.
- Monthly totals in the Travel between releases include cruise trips (tiny: 3,900 to 37,200 a month in 2026). Car counts are rounded by StatCan to the nearest 100,000.
- Implied 2024 trips = 2026 monthly total ÷ (1 + StatCan's % change vs the same month of 2024). Example: January 2.1M ÷ (1 − 0.232) = 2.734M. Summed for Jan–Jul: 22.63M vs 16.8M actual, a gap of 5.83M trips.
- Spending per trip = StatCan US travel spending ÷ StatCan return trips from the US: 2025 C$18.8B ÷ 29.1M = C$646; 2024 (C$18.8B + C$3.3B = C$22.1B) ÷ 39M = C$567. Missing spending = 5.83M × C$646 = C$3.76B (high) and 5.83M × C$567 = C$3.30B (low). USD conversion uses the Bank of Canada 2025 average of 1.3978 CAD per USD (US$0.7154).
- US share of trips abroad = US return trips ÷ (US + overseas return trips). 2025: 29.1 ÷ (29.1 + 14.2) = 67.2%. 2024 overseas trips derived as 14.2M ÷ 1.092 = 13.0M, giving 39 ÷ 52.0 = 75.0%.
- Route table compiled from airline statements as reported by Travelweek, Daily Hive, TravelPulse and PAX News; dates are those reported at announcement and may have changed since.
Limitations
StatCan's trip counts are border crossings, not people: one snowbird and one daily commuter count very differently. Monthly data for May to July 2026 do not break down car and air changes versus 2024, and August and September figures are preliminary, with NEXUS data integration from August making historical comparisons less exact. Survey results (Leger, Nanos) reflect stated intentions from online or phone panels, not behaviour. The lost-spending figure is a KalQLater estimate using average spending per crossing and could be materially off. We could not open StatCan's September 2026 release or CAPA's full article. Nothing here is legal, tax or immigration advice.
Spotted an error? See our corrections policy. Read how we work in our methodology and editorial standards.
Sources
- Statistics CanadaTravel between Canada and other countries, July 2026July 2026 car, air and total trips; vs 2024; same-day share
- Statistics CanadaLeading indicator of international arrivals to Canada, August 2026Preliminary August car and air changes vs 2025 and 2024; NEXUS note
- Statistics CanadaCanadian-resident travel to the United States: A year in review2025 spending C$18.8B; visits by destination; domestic spending
- Statistics CanadaTravel between Canada and other countries, December 2025 (annual 2025)29.1M trips in 2025 (-25.4%); 14.2M overseas trips
- Statistics CanadaTravel between Canada and other countries, April 2026April car and air trips and comparisons with 2024 (Jan, Feb, Mar, May, Jun releases linked in text)
- BNN Bloomberg / The Canadian PressCross-border travel for Canadian, US tourists saw September surge compared to 2025: StatCanPreliminary September 2026 figures; Labour Day effect
- Air CanadaAir Canada Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial ResultsFuel cost per litre and fuel expense
- Bank of CanadaAnnual average exchange ratesUSD/CAD 2024 and 2025 averages
- US Travel AssociationPotential Results of Decline in Canadian Travel to United States2024 visits, spending, jobs; 10% scenario
- LegerTravel Trends Canada: US travel declines, travel intentions 2026Survey of 1,583 adults, 6–8 March 2026
- PAX NewsAir Canada further trims US network: eight route changesJuly 2026 route changes and dates
- Daily HiveAll of the flights Air Canada has suspended so far amid high fuel costsJFK and Salt Lake City suspension dates; fuel quote
- TravelweekWestJet suspends 16 US routes amid continued downturn in transborder demandFeb 2026 routes; 10% and 15% capacity cuts
- TravelweekWestJet has route suspensions for its US networkJuly 2026 winter changes (reported)
- money.caCanadian snowbirds: US registration and tax rulesRegistration rule effective 29 Jun 2026; Form 8840; OHIP 212 days